Mullings A Political Cyber Column By Rich Galen

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Midnight in the Garden of George and Albert

Friday October 20, 2000

From Savannah, Georgia

I couldn't stay up until midnight. I assume some good things happened and some evil things happened, but they all happened without me.

The Council of Industrial Boiler Operators (CIBO) requested and got a speech on the state of the race last night here. I suggested this will either be a "left brain or a right brain election." If voters want Gore they will vote with the left side of their brains, the literal, analytical side. If they want Bush, they will vote with the right side of their brains - the side which is the more abstract, conceptual side.

Polls. Polls. Polls. Polls. Every tracking poll through yesterday afternoon had Governor Bush leading Vice President Gore from between plus one and plus ten points.

In two of them: The CNN/USA Today poll and the MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby tracking polls the post-debate numbers had Bush increasing his lead although the full impact won't be felt until Friday's polling is reported on Saturday. Reuters reported that the one-night sample from Wednesday night had Bush leading by three which made the entire sample move from even to plus one for Bush.

As reported on CNN last evening, Bush has pulled out to a 10 point lead: 49-39 with one-third of that (one night's polling out of three) now coming from a post-debate sample.

This election might be essentially decided by this weekend.

The non-horserace numbers of the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll by Republican Bob Teeter and Democrat Peter Hart had some fascinating results. For example, they asked respondents: "Have the Presidential debates made you more likely to support Bush, more likely to support Gore or made no difference?" 25 percent said they were more likely to vote for Bush having watched the debates. Only 18 percent made them more likely to vote for Gore; A plus seven for Bush.

I guarantee you that when the Gore strategists were going through their war gaming scenarios earlier this year this was not one of them: We will go into the debate sequence approximately even. We will come out of the debates behind in the polls and with Bush having the momentum. What do we do?

The Gore campaign should have accepted the Bush debate proposal.

The two best analysts in the country, Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, now both think that the GOP might well hang onto the U.S. House. If Bush sprints out to a 8-10 point lead in most of the polls, and it becomes conventional wisdom that Bush is going to win, enough Democrats may stay home to push a number of very close House races into the Republican column.

Sam Dawson, who knows Congressional elections as well as any one on the planet thinks that the standard Democratic scare campaign on health care and Social Security are simply not working this year and Republicans are perfectly happy to stay with the party at the Congressional level.

In an excellent Los Angeles Times piece on the role of African-American voters in the upcoming elections, reporter Mark Z. Barabak wrote: " [In 1964], Johnson won a stunning 94% of the African American vote after signing the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The GOP and its candidates have struggled for black support ever since - few working harder than Texas Gov. Bush, who has put forth more effort than any Republican nominee in well over a generation."

USA Today's Kathy Neily wrote a story about Bill Clinton's visit to New Mexico on behalf of Democratic challenger John Kelly. According to Neily, Clinton said Kelly represents "everything I think is best about America."

To review the bidding, Kelly is challenging Republican incumbent Heather Wilson. Kelly was Clinton's classmate at Georgetown University. Kelly was the prosecutor who brought the 59 charge indictment against Wen Ho Lee which was reduced to one minor charge and settled with a plea bargain. All of which caused Clinton to call the entire matter as concocted by Kelly, "disturbing" and "troubling."

At least President Clinton was being honest. Getting away with disturbing and troubling behavior is exactly what he thinks is best about America.

Bob Livingston, appearing on MSNBC, was discussing the remarkable story about the secret deal that Al Gore cut with Russia's then-Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin to allow the transfer of nuclear technology to Iran. "The Presidential candidate," he said of Gore, "is beginning to look like the Manchurian Candidate."

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Copyright © 2000 Richard A. Galen

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