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Curtain Raiser: Boston
Rich Galen Monday July 26, 2004
From Boston, Massachusetts
The Democratic National Convention
Programming Note: I will be appearing on the Fox News Channel every morning at about nine during the Democratic National Convention.
First of all, let me say that I love this stuff. There is nothing which equals a national political convention for everything which is the best and the worst of American politics.
A national convention whose only function used to be to choose a nominee, has changed its purpose.
There hasn't been a contested convention since about 1650 when Charles I and Oliver Cromwell duked (if you know what I mean, and I think you do) it out.
Platforms used to be forgotten as soon as they were adopted. Now they are ignored as soon as they are written.
National reputations used to be made and lost at conventions. John Chancellor, at the Republican National Convention in 1964 was escorted off the floor by security personnel saying, "Here we go down the middle aisle. ... I've been promised bail, ladies and gentlemen, by my office. This is John Chancellor, somewhere in custody."
And four years later who can forget Mayor Richard Daley shaking his fist and cursing at Connecticut Senator Abraham Ribicoff who, from the podium, was denouncing the "Gestapo tactics" of the Chicago police outside the convention hall.
Just four years ago the internet was all the rage. Dot-coms made a major commitment to providing on-line coverage of the conventions in Los Angeles and Philadelphia. This year, most of them have ceased to exist as commercial enterprises. Now, only Mullings.com a few others are still in the game.
Also four years ago the Bush campaign came out of its convention (the GOP went first last time) on a high note, sailing along with a healthy lead.
A few weeks later, a dysfunctional Gore for President campaign was ignited on the convention's final night by the candidate's speech began with a kiss (which was at least "R" rated) and ended with Gore vaulting himself into a tie with Governor Bush; a tie which lasted all the way into December of 2000.
The Kerry campaign not only has to get the standard "convention bounce" out of these next four days, but it has to get enough of a bounce to withstand the bounce Bush will get at his convention in early September.
To help his cause, I fully expect the Edwards/Kerry campaign to announce it will reject Federal funding for the general election. Campaigns which accept the $74 million in public financing may not raise private money.
The general election campaign begins when a candidate is nominated. That means the Edwards/Kerry campaign will have to start spending its $74 million this Friday. The Bush/Cheney campaign can continue to spend its primary election funds until September 2 when President Bush officially accepts the GOP nomination.
Kerry has raised an enormous amount of money during the primary season. Not as much as President Bush, but certainly far exceeding his own expectations. If the Edwards/Kerry team believes they can continue to raise money at the same rate (everyone who gave in the primary can give again in the general) then they might well decide to throw caution to the winds.
The danger of that strategy is, if President Bush comes out of his convention with a significant lead, and people begin to believe - as I do now - that Bush will win the election, the Edwards/Kerry money will dry up quickly making a Bush victory a self-fulfilling prophesy.
If Edwards/Kerry turn down public financing, it will be a good news/good news joke: The first of the good news will be that the campaign will suck every dime out of the Democratic fundraising pool leaving down-ballot candidates without adequate finances. The second of the good news is it will put the final nail in the you-know-what of the public financing of campaigns.
The technicians and the pollsters will write good speeches. The candidates will deliver them well. The question will come down to whether the public thinks the candidates believe what they are saying, or are simply saying what the technicians and the pollsters think will sell.
I love this stuff.
On the Secret Decoder Ring Page today: Links to the Cromwell/Charles I unpleasantness, a link to a page about public financing, and the first of a bunch of Mullfotos from Boston!
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Copyright © 2004 Richard A. Galen
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