The theory is this: The party of the President loses seats in mid-term elections. The House of Representatives is very close: 222 Republicans; 211 Democrats with two independents who almost always split evenly.
Democrats have to pick up a net six seats this November to regain control of the U.S. House for the first time since 1995. (Those who were absent Wednesday and missed the lesson on a Zero Sum Game should go here: //www.mullings.com/04-03-02.htm ).
If the theory holds, then this should be a Democratic piece of cake.
Juliet Eilperin's Washington Post story earlier this week indicates that cake might be hard to get out of the oven.
You really don't have to get much past the headline:
"House Democrats' Climb Gets Steeper; Party Lacks Rallying Cry as Redistricting, Incumbency Cut Competitive Races"
Several observers believe the GOP will pick up about five seats out of the reapportionment and redistricting process. (Civics review: Reapportionment adjusts the number of Representatives each state gets; they gain or lose depending upon population shifts. Redistricting is the process in which lines WITHIN a state are redrawn to decide where each Representative will run.)
After the 1998 elections, when the Democrats in California captured everything there was to get, there was great fear that the GOP could lose as many as eight seats in that one state. Didn't happen.
What did happen is what always happens. Incumbents wanted their districts to get stronger, not weaker. If I were a Republican incumbent in the State of North Sandstone I would want every Republican vote I could get my hands on. My next-door neighbor, who might be a Democrat, wants every Democratic vote.
The national committees want me to send some of my Republican votes to the next-door district to make that incumbent weaker. I listen. And nod. And send my in-state people up to the state capital and threaten them with sending them to SOUTH Sandstone if they give up so much as a single GOP vote.
Then there is the matter of recruiting. Democrats will tell you they've had a very successful recruiting year. They haven't. Let's say you are a well-to-do Democratic lawyer in my district in North Sandstone and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee comes a-knockin' (that's the way we speak in the Sandstones) on your door and asks you to run against me.
Here's why you take a pass:
-- You are starting from zero in the finance department and you will have to raise about a million-two At least a quarter of it will have to come from your own pocket because not that many people are likely to show up at a fundraiser headlined by Martin Frost. Who? My point, exactly.
-- You have to go up against an incumbent and incumbents in the House tend to win about 95 percent of the time.
-- You have to run in the face of a President of the opposite party who is ticking along at close to 80 percent job approval.
As you didn't get to be a successful lawyer by making bad choices, you pass.
There are very few competitive races this year - maybe 30. If the Democrats are to take control of the House they have to win two out of every three of those, which is not likely in a closely divided country.
Finally two quotes from the Eilperin piece which make the case:
The political director of the AFL-CIO (which is going to spend tens of millions of dollars with nary a dime going to Republican candidates) says he tells audiences, "I'll buy dinner for anybody who can say what the Democrats stand for. So far nobody's taken me up on it."
And here's what House Minority Leader Dick Gephart's Chief of Staff told her on the chances of the Democrats taking control and thus Gephardt becoming Speaker: "This thing is a tossup," he said.
Prior to the 1994 election, that's what I used to say every two years. It really means: We don't have a prayer.
On the Secret Decoder Ring page today,
an interesting picture of the White House, a link to the Eilperin article, and the usual stuff.
If you are working at a lobbying firm, a government affairs office, a coalition, or a PAC you should take a
look at this page to see how advertising in Mullings might serve your organization very well:
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