The Plural of Caucus is Not Cauci
Monday, January 24, 2000
The great game among reporters yesterday was trying to figure out the calculus of what the effects of various outcomes from the Iowa caucuses might be.
For instance: What will Bradley do if he loses big here (which seems likely) and then loses in New Hampshire. To reprise a Mulling from last week: The three most important words in the English language are, "I Love You" except in a Presidential election year when they are "Cash On Hand."
The Democrats' assiduous adherence to proportionality will mean that Bradley - even if he gets hammered here and in New Hampshire - may end up with 30-40 percent of the delegates from those two states. The Dems don't have another primary until Washington State on February 29, and then the big group of 11 primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, March 7.
Bradley could emerge on the morning of March 8 with no wins but a significant number of delegates. The reason that is important is because he can force the Gore Democrats to bend to his will with the THREAT of a floor fight on a number of issues.
Both party's national conventions have become as closely scripted as an appearance by Hillary Rodham Clinton Rodham on the David Letterman show. "No surprises" is every nominee's instruction to the staff. The Dems - much as the GOP had to do with Buchanan in 1992 - will have to cave in to a number of Bradley demands just to keep them from spawning floor fights and causing news to break out.
On the Republican side there is no doubt that George W will come in first here. The buzz at the 801 Chop & Steak House in Des Moines last night (which, by the way, is not normally open on Sundays but was open last night to accommodate the 57,354 reporters on expense account who would otherwise have had to eat fried pork tenderloin sandwiches from the drive-through) was whether the 1,000 people who showed up at an Alan Keyes rally earlier in the day signaled a surge in Keyes' support and, if so, whether it would come out of Forbes' hide.
Reporters who have spent too much time having had dinner and/or drinks with each other will sometimes - very rarely - write the next day using the secret code: "observers here say �"
The poll in yesterday's Des Moines Register showed Bush leading Forbes 43-20 with Keyes and McCain tied for third at 8 percent. Forbes' people were working the crowd at the 801 using one of the best Iowa political operatives, John Maxwell, suggesting Forbes will do well because what they are seeing on the ground is so different from what the polling data are saying.
If Bush ends up with a number that starts with a four, he will be deemed the clear winner. If Forbes gets in the 30s he will make positive news. If Alan Keyes comes in third he will be in everyone's lead.
Forbes got about 20 percent of the vote at the Iowa Republican Party Straw poll in August. Bush got about 31 percent. Elizabeth Dole, remember, surprised (everyone including herself) by coming in third. If Forbes wants to declare a victory, observers here say he has to get within single digits of Bush tonight.
The other side of the calculus equation is what effect all this will have on the McCain campaign in New Hampshire. A strong Bush finish might well carry forward to next week. A strong Forbes finish would allow him to lay claim to being the conservative alternative to Bush which might further upset the already roiled waters of the New Hampshire electorate.
Look for McCain to try and make news on Tuesday having been in a blackout due to his choosing not to participate here. If McCain can steal a march on the other candidates and their staffs, weary from stumping around Iowa, he might be able to get the last week of the New Hampshire campaign off to a strong start and maintain his first place position in the polls until next Tuesday night.
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