You haven't heard much from Democrats about their loss of an ancestrally Democratic House seat in southside Virginia this week because it exposed several weaknesses in their political playbook. They'll need some time to regroup.

Premise No. 1 of the Democratic playbook was that voters were tiring of the Bush Administration and an "extreme" agenda that was out of touch with the country. Indeed, House special elections traditionally give voters a ready way to convey discontent to the party in charge of the White House. Columnist Rich Galen notes there had been 19 special elections in the past quarter century in which a seat switched parties. In only three did the party in the White House win a seat held by the opposition party. The GOP win in Virginia, filling a seat vacated by the death of Democrat Norm Sisisky, is the fourth such victory. The Bush Administration so far has a better record of success in special elections than Ronald Reagan did during his first year.

Democrats were convinced Social Security demagoguery would spook seniors and low-income whites in this week's special election. Their ads said President Bush's plan to create individual retirement accounts could lead to benefit cuts and "Social Security earnings riding up and down on the stock market." Republican Randy Forbes stood firm and defended retirement choices for younger workers. His 52% victory in a highly competitive district should lay to rest lingering GOP fears that Social Security reform is a political liability for them. "If we can win on [Social Security] here, we can win anywhere," is the message Mr. Forbes says he will bring his new colleagues in the House.

In fact, Mr. Forbes's showing outperformed every recent GOP candidate in the area. Bill Clinton carried the district twice and Al Gore won just shy of 50%. Republican Senators John Warner and George Allen both lost the district in their last races even while winning statewide. Only 32 of the nation's 435 Congressional districts have a greater percentage of black voters.

Nonetheless, Democratic spinners are already blaming their poor showing on racial antagonism towards Ms. Lucas, a black state senator. But that won't fly. Democrat Doug Wilder became the state's first black governor a decade ago by winning 55% in the areas making up the current district. Mr. Wilder won both black and white votes because he was a moderate who opposed higher taxes. Ms. Lucas lost because she was a liberal who had voted to raise gasoline taxes and against tort reform.

This is not to say that Ms. Lucas didn't benefit from a large black turnout; Donna Brazile, the Gore campaign manager who so effectively mobilized minority voters in last year's election, lent her expertise to the Lucas campaign. Turnout was 38% of all voters, significantly higher than predicted. Democrats also had plenty of money, a favorable district and their usual kitbag of scare issues. They still lost.

Democrats have to come to grips with the fact that even with all those advantages they will still lose if their candidate is ideologically out of sync with the voters. It may be time for them to rewrite their political playbook. It's starting to look outdated by events.

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