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By R.G. RATCLIFFE
Copyright 2000 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau

AUSTIN -- With a renewed confidence, Republican George W. Bush's presidential campaign has launched an aggressive new strategy that, if successful, could lead to an Electoral College landslide over Democrat Al Gore.

The combined strategy of advertising and on-the-ground campaigning is built on the belief that Louisiana and Ohio are now solidly Bush; Florida will be tight but has returned to Bush's victory column; and a quiet advertising campaign in Minnesota has put the state into play for Bush.

The ultimate key to this strategy is to pull off an upset victory for California's 54 electoral votes. If Gore loses California, a national Bush landslide appears possible.

"We have a solid chance to sweep the West Coast," Bush told Washington state volunteers Saturday by satellite. "But this election will be close and the outcome will be determined precinct by precinct."

Bush concluded the week with three of five national polls showing the Texas governor coming out of the presidential debates with a lead and apparent momentum.

Bush hopes to boost that with what his campaign is calling a week of "barnstorming" with other Republican governors. Bush is scheduled to launch that effort with a rally today at the Governor's Mansion.

Bush plans this week to draw sharp policy distinctions between himself and Gore, advertise in key areas that the vice president has expected to win and take advantage of the spoiler role that Green Party presidential nominee Ralph Nader is playing in California, Minnesota and Washington.

Bush began his rhetorical march Saturday by telling his Washington state supporters that Gore's tax-cut proposal was an "iffy tax scheme" that meant people would get tax cuts only "if" they did what the government wanted. Gore has called Bush's proposed broader tax cut a "risky scheme" that could harm prosperity.

"In just 17 days, the American people will decide the outcome of this race," Bush said. "And that decision is not just between two candidates. It is between two visions."

Gore spokeswoman Kym Spell said Bush's campaign is mistaken in thinking that Bush can win California or that Gore is surrendering Ohio or any other battleground state.

"The Bush campaign ... they're making a lot of empty noise and threats," Spell said. "We would welcome the Bush campaign to spend some of their resources in California, because it would be a waste."

Spell said Gore also plans to paint strong contrasts between his plans and Bush's.

"You're going to hear the vice president talking a lot next week ... about the irresponsible and ill-considered choices offered by Bush," she said.

Spell also pointed out that Gore's campaign has $6 million more cash on hand than Bush's, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports. The Republican National Committee, however, reported that it had $22 million more than the Democratic National Committee.

While the popular vote is an important symbol in a presidential race, the contest is won in the Electoral College. Each state gets a number of electors equal to its number of senators and representatives, and the District of Columbia gets three.

In most states the top vote-getter wins all of that state's electoral votes. A presidential candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win.

Bush strategists still are predicting a close race nationally, but they believe their state-by-state game plan could tilt the race drastically to Bush's favor on Election Day, Nov. 7.

The National Journal's weekly survey of polls last week showed Gore leading in the electoral count 273-265, but that was before a new poll showed Minnesota's 10 votes slipping from Gore to Bush.

A Bush win in California could shift that close count to a near-landslide for Bush.

The latest California poll showed Gore with a lead of nine percentage points over Bush, 48 percent to 39 percent, with Nader at 6 percent. Gore earlier held a double-digit lead over Bush.

A Bush insider said the campaign had been active in California just to shore up Republicans in 10 congressional races. The campaign now believes Bush might be able to win the state.

Bush's campaign and the Republican National Committee have been running $1.5 million a week of advertising in California during the past several weeks, while Gore has had no advertising in the state.

Bush's ads have targeted Republican and swing congressional districts as well as the Los Angeles area.

Bush's campaign holds no hope of winning Los Angeles -- internal polls show Gore holds a 14-percentage-point lead there -- but if Gore's margin in L.A. can be cut, then a statewide Bush victory may be possible.

Bush's campaign advertising also is believed to have improved the chances of a large Republican turnout. Districts that 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole won or lost narrowly are now solidly Bush.

"These are all areas where we've been running advertising," said chief Bush strategist Karl Rove.

Gore's top California adviser, Garry South, told the Sacramento Press Club last week that if Gore does not change his tactics and advertise in the state, he could lose California.

After South's remarks, Gore's campaign announced last week that President Clinton will stump in California for his vice president.

A key Bush insider said the campaign had hoped to sneak up on Gore in the traditionally Democratic state of Minnesota through an unannounced advertising campaign. Gore has not been running ads there.

But a Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll released Friday showed the race 44 percent for Bush and 41 percent for Gore, a statistical tie. That tipped Bush's hand, and the campaign now plans to launch statewide advertising in Minnesota on Monday in hopes of luring Gore money to the state.

Bush's ability to attack in Minnesota was made possible by the belief that Louisiana and Ohio are now his and that Gore has all but given up on Ohio.

Though Gore's campaign denied that he is surrendering Ohio, the Toledo Blade last week reported that Gore has cut his advertising there from $550,000 a week to $400,000 and shifted the difference to the battleground state of Michigan.

The Democratic National Committee has not advertised in Ohio in two weeks. A key Bush insider said $650,000 in Democratic advertising money has been shifted from Ohio to Florida.

Bush's campaign admitted that it was surprised by Gore's sudden surge in Florida in late August after Gore picked Sen. Joseph Lieberman as his running mate and pushed a prescription drug plan for seniors.

The Bush campaign insider said the campaign now believes it has countered Gore in Florida and internal polls show Bush leading by four percentage points. Bush plans to campaign this week in Florida with his GOP primary rival, Arizona Sen. John McCain.