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 Still, a Win is a Win
* The reality. George W. didn't do quite as well as he wanted to, but did well enough. Forbes did as well as he could. But Elizabeth Dole did too well for Forbes to claim his victory. Here's why.
* George W's team wanted to be able to claim that the race, for all intents and purposes, was over. He won by more than 10 percentage points over second place Steve Forbes, but getting slightly over 31 percent of the vote - instead of somewhere over 40 percent - they can't, yet, lay claim to the nomination.
* Forbes' people spent a good deal of time this week enunciating their "we need to make this a two-man race as quickly as possible," strategy. They needed to come in a strong second - which they did with 20.8 percent, but nearly 11 point behind Bush and, more importantly, only about six points ahead of Dole.
* Dole came in third with 14.4 percent of the vote. Dole's people were ready to spin the notion that coming in as badly as fifth - behind Gary Bauer and Pat Buchanan - was still alright. Coming in third allowed her to claim "positive surprise of the night" honors and, so, she gets a big boost.
* If Dole did better than Forbes wanted her to do, then Bauer did not do as well as Bush needed him to do. Bauer's fourth place showing with about 9 percent, was an under performance against what the press (and most of the other candidates) thought he would do here.
* The drill holds that Bauer would have taken support from Forbes, not Bush, so a higher total for Bauer would have meant a wider split between Bush and Forbes. That made my head hurt.
* Bay Buchanan, sister of, was in charge of spin patrol after Buchanan came in a sustainable fifth with 7.2 percent of the vote. She held that this was a better showing "among Iowans" than four years ago when Buchanan - and everyone else - brought ringers in from other states to vote.
* Alexander came in sixth with six percent. Ironically, Bush under performed his polling numbers, while Alexander over performed. But Bush is the winner and Alexander will probably have to fold his tent.
* The big loser, of course, is Dan Quayle. Coming in behind Alan Keys (who got about 4.6 percent of the vote) with only 916 votes (less than four percent) evoked responses of sympathy from the press section in the Hilton Coliseum. Gone.
* So, when it was all over the Republicans had put on a great old-fashion political party. Some 24,000 people spent a good part of their day in the middle of Iowa eating barbecue, ribs, fried chicken, cole slaw and potato salad. They patiently stood on lines for food, on other lines to vote, and still other lines to get a seat in the hall.
* These were mostly serious folks having a good time. The only cynicism on the grounds were the reporters and the political staffs. The Iowans believed they were involved in an important step in the process, and were thrilled.
* The Democrats, on the other hand, are looking over their shoulders at Warren Beatty.
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