|
|
 Start Your Engines
* Let's do a quick survey of the Republican Presidential field. This, so I don't have to write TWICE this week about Monica.
* The addition of Pat Buchanan and George W. Bush into the Presidential Sweepstakes has expanded the options for Republicans across the nation. We now have (by my count) 10 candidates either officially announced, unofficially announced that they WILL officially announce, or unofficially announced that they are planning to unofficially announce that they WILL officially announce.
* Buchanan, of course, won the New Hampshire primary against Bob Dole and others in the campaign of 1996. It will be in Pat's interests for the maximum number of candidates to stay in the race for as long as possible so he can have a shot at winning with thirty-something percent of the vote there.
* Elizabeth Dole, who is close in the polls to Governor Bush, has apparently adopted a campaign of "I'll only do what George W. does," which is not a bad strategy. It might help keep voters' minds focused on the notion this is a two-person race: Bush v. Dole. Mrs. Dole declined to attend the California Republican Party convention last weekend (as did Bush). After Bush announced the formation of his exploratory committee, Dole's people began to spread the word she would be doing the same shortly.
* John Kasich and Dan Quayle were both very strong on the Sunday talk shows this past weekend, in my mind. Kasich has his rap down very, very well and, if he can get in front of enough people, his campaign might catch fire. Quayle sounded more self-confident than he has since he left the Senate.
* Lamar Alexander has still got considerable support in Iowa which is critical in a front-loaded primary season but he needs to stay afloat for the next 12 months until the Iowa Caucuses.
* Steve Forbes continues to have a good deal of support for his economic positions and, because he can write the check to run the entire campaign, cannot be taken lightly.
* John McCain has a shot at staying around if enough Republicans take to his sometimes quirky political stands. What are not at issue are his personal attributes: loyalty, strength, and honor.
* Gary Bauer has to prove, even to his most ardent supporters, that he has any shot at actually winning. Robert Smith is hoping for a "favorite son" vote in New Hampshire.
* That leaves the campaign of George W. Bush who is already being referred to simply as "George W." which puts everyone else at a disadvantage. If I were being consulted for the campaign (which I am not) I would send him into California as soon as his self-imposed travel restriction is over. He should go there to raise money, which everyone else will be doing, but more to show that he can unify a somewhat fractured (and fractious) California GOP and generate sufficient support in the Golden State.
* If Bush shows he might actually win California's 54 electoral votes in November 2000 - added to the expected victories in Texas (32) and Brother-Bush's Florida (25) - the national GOP may say, in effect, "that's close enough. Let's get behind George W. and win this thing back."
|
