The Square of the Distance Rule

The Square of the Distance Rule

Rich Galen

Friday January 15, 2010

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From Kharkiv, Ukraine

(Near the Russian Border)

There is a rule - that I don't think I made up - which states: A person's interest in an event is reduced by the square of the distance between that person and the event.

The tragic earthquake in Haiti is an example. As is the election here in Ukraine on Sunday and the election in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

The Haiti earthquake is an international story because of the enormous loss of life and because it's relatively easy to get camera crews to Haiti which is only about 700 miles from Miami; five hundred fewer miles than the flight distance between Washington, DC and Dallas, TX.

I mentioned this theory to a colleague here last night who agreed, saying, "If the earthquake had been in Madagascar, we wouldn't see Anderson Cooper reporting live from the scene."

As I've been telling you, there is an election for President here in Ukraine on Sunday.

DEAR MR. MULLINGS

Didn't Ukraine used to be known as The Ukraine? When did change. And why?

Signed,

Billy Smith

Miss Moore's fourth grade class

I'm not sure about the when, but here was the answer I was given as to why: Ukraine means approximately "The Border Country" or "Border Territory." It was called "The Ukraine" by Russia (and previously by the Soviet Union) because Russia considered it to be its southern border.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine wanted to make the point that it was not a part of Russia and so dropped the "The" from its name.

The most likely outcome is the candidate who is most pro-Russian, Viktor Yanukovich, will come in first with about 30 percent of the vote. The current Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, is likely to come in second about 10 percentage points back which would force a run off in about three weeks.

The President, Viktor Yushchenko (all these names sound pretty much the same to my American ears) is running for re-election but is far back in the pack among the rest of the 16 candidates.

Yushchenko was elected President after the "Orange Revolution" forced the Ukraine Supreme Court decide that enough fraud had been documented to throw out the results which had given the win to Viktor Yanukovich - the same pro-Russian guy who is likely to win this time.

A win for Yanukovich would be seen as a victory for Russian President Viktor Putin and a loss for Ukrainians who have been trying to earn membership in the E.U. and a seat at the NATO table.

Under the constantly changing Ukraine election laws, no polling has been permitted since January 2 - 15 days before election day - and even when polls were being released they were looked at with suspicion because it was mostly the campaigns themselves which were taking and releasing polling numbers.

Political polling is allowed in the United States straight through the elections (hence, exit polls) and a new poll conducted by Suffolk University and Channel 7 News in Boston was released last night showing that in the race to fill the vacancy caused by the deal of Sen. Ted Kennedy the Republican, Scott Brown, has surged to a four-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley.

As others have already pointed out, whether Brown hangs on to win (and moves the GOP back to enough Senators to filibuster unwanted legislation) or ultimately loses to Coakley in the bluest of the blue states, Massachusetts, the damage has been done: Democrats in Congress, already shaken by GOP victories in the races for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey last November, are watching what should have been a walk-over turn into a nail-biter and they are not at all happy about it.

No one in the U.S. is talking about the election in Ukraine and no one in Ukraine (other than other American observers) has said a word about the Massachusetts special even though both races, in their own ways, will have a lasting effect on world politics.

It's the square of the distance rule.

On the Secret Decoder Ring today: Links to the AP coverage of the Ukrainian election and to the Boston Globe article on the new poll in Massachusetts. Also a nice Mullfoto from Kiyv and a Catchy Caption of the day from Port-au-Prince.