H1National Emergency

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The President has declared the H1N1 flu …

SIDEBAR

According to a piece in yesterday's Washington Post by David Brown, "Little is known about the origin of the novel H1N1. But one thing is virtually certain: The bug now infecting the people of more than 190 countries began in a pig."

As you may remember, H1N1 flu used be called "swine flu" until the Pork Producers got edgy about the Other White Meat being blamed for a world-wide pandemic and convinced everyone to refer to it by its scientific name.

Pretty good marketing.

END SIDEBAR

Where was I? Oh, yes, someone must have told President Obama that if he didn't declare H1N1 flu a national emergency this past Saturday, then it would be difficult to blame it on George W. Bush on the Sunday morning shows.

I think H1N1 is a real problem which could easily turn into a real tragedy. This isn't global warming, where you can argue over the science. N1H1 is a different strain of flu - different from the annual flu variety which is known as "seasonal" flu.

In the United States alone, seasonal flu typically affects about 40 million people, sends 200,000 of them to the hospital and kills about 36,000 each year. In a typical year, the elderly account for 90 percent of flu deaths.

Swine flu appears to be affecting children and those in the prime of life. Just like the pandemic of 1918. About 1,000 people have died from H1N1 - including about 100 children which is more than die in a full year of seasonal flu.

According to an AP piece last week, the Centers for Disease Control's figures "showed more than half of all hospitalizations were people 24 and younger; more than a quarter were ages 5 to 18 years."

The article by Mike Stobbe went on to say, "Swine flu deaths were concentrated in young and middle-aged adults. A third of all deaths were people ages 25 through 49; another third were 50 to 64. Only 12 percent of deaths from swine flu have occurred in the elderly, so far."

In a National Institutes of Health paper written about the time of the "Bird Flu" scare a couple of years ago, the researchers pondered why the 1918 flu seemed to target those in the prime of life:

"One possible explanation, supported by recent studies in mice with a reconstructed version of the 1918 virus, is that an over-responsive immune system may release a "cytokine storm," or excessive amount of immune system proteins that trigger inflammation and harm the patient in the process."

Flu season hasn't even started in earnest yet. According to the CDC the four months starting in December and ending in March tend to be the big flu months, with February (based on historical data) likely to be the worst.

One of the issues facing the Obama Administration - the very touchy Obama Administration - is the lack of vaccine. In a Baltimore Examiner article, "120 million doses were supposed to be available by now, but only 10 million have been delivered. Additional doses of the [H1N1] vaccine won't be ready until November and December" well into flu season.

Look for a Flu Czar to be announced this week.

In spite of having been able to deliver only eight percent of the expected vaccines, the President's written statement in conjunction with the declaration of a national emergency contained this:

"The foundation of our national approach to the H1N1 flu has been preparedness at all levels - personal, business, and government."

Also good marketing.

On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Links to the AP piece on young people and to the NIH paper, and a brief explanation of cytokines (which may well be on your mid-term). Also a Mullfoto of angry White Liberals Downtown the other day and a Catchy Caption of the Day which is an electron microscope image of the H1N1 virus.