Finding a Needle in a Straw Poll
DISCLOSURE: Reminder to all that I am a paid consultant to the Friends of Fred Thompson Committee. So, read what follows through that filter.
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No question that the Mitt Romney campaign cleared the bar which was set for him at the Republican Straw Poll in Ames on Saturday by getting about 32% of the votes.
He came in first by a pretty good margin and, other than Gov. Mike Huckabee's second place finish (18%) just ahead of Sen. Sam Brownback (15%), there were no big surprises.
Rep. Tom Tancredo got 14% of the votes for fourth place, which was significantly better than Rep. Ron Paul's 9%.
Gov. Tommy Thompson's showing in sixth place with only 7% of the votes probably spells the end of Tommy's bid.
Romney came in first with about the same percentage of votes which then-Gov. George W. Bush got in 1999. It was a solid win, but not an eyebrow-raiser. Add to that none of the other "first tier" candidates - Giuiliani, McCain, nor Fred Thompson - competed in this year's edition.
Contrast that with 1999 when Bush had Steve Forbes - who had been willing to stake a good portion of his personal fortune on the 2000 election - nipping at his heels. Bush won, but Forbes' strong second-place finish prevented the Bush campaign from claiming a close-out win.
There was some chatter over the past week that Giuliani was staging a below-the-radar effort to get supporters out and, thereby, claim the "better-than-expected" mantle. Upon further review, however, if there was any underground activity by the Giuliani campaign it might well have been to have supporters stay away so as to keep the overall turnout (about 14,000) as low as possible.
It is probably fair to say that the McCain, Giuliani and Fred Thompson operations were perfectly happy that none of them broke from the pack and ended up in a surprise second or third-place finish. So long as they were all bunched at the back of the pack, they were satisified.
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I would have done this if I had their resources but USA Today did a study about how much each campaign spent per-vote.
Welcome to the NFL.
Rich
No question that the Mitt Romney campaign cleared the bar which was set for him at the Republican Straw Poll in Ames on Saturday by getting about 32% of the votes.
He came in first by a pretty good margin and, other than Gov. Mike Huckabee's second place finish (18%) just ahead of Sen. Sam Brownback (15%), there were no big surprises.
Rep. Tom Tancredo got 14% of the votes for fourth place, which was significantly better than Rep. Ron Paul's 9%.
Gov. Tommy Thompson's showing in sixth place with only 7% of the votes probably spells the end of Tommy's bid.
Romney came in first with about the same percentage of votes which then-Gov. George W. Bush got in 1999. It was a solid win, but not an eyebrow-raiser. Add to that none of the other "first tier" candidates - Giuiliani, McCain, nor Fred Thompson - competed in this year's edition.
Contrast that with 1999 when Bush had Steve Forbes - who had been willing to stake a good portion of his personal fortune on the 2000 election - nipping at his heels. Bush won, but Forbes' strong second-place finish prevented the Bush campaign from claiming a close-out win.
There was some chatter over the past week that Giuliani was staging a below-the-radar effort to get supporters out and, thereby, claim the "better-than-expected" mantle. Upon further review, however, if there was any underground activity by the Giuliani campaign it might well have been to have supporters stay away so as to keep the overall turnout (about 14,000) as low as possible.
It is probably fair to say that the McCain, Giuliani and Fred Thompson operations were perfectly happy that none of them broke from the pack and ended up in a surprise second or third-place finish. So long as they were all bunched at the back of the pack, they were satisified.
I would have done this if I had their resources but USA Today did a study about how much each campaign spent per-vote.
Third-place finisher Sam Brownback says he spent about $325,000 to win his 2,192 votes. That's $148.27 for each vote.Second-place finisher Mike Huckabee spent about $150,000 and received 2,587 votes. That's $57.98 per vote.
Winner Mitt Romney has not said how much he spent. The reporting in this Washington Post article suggests at least $2 million and possibly more than twice that much. Assuming $2 million for 4,516 votes, that's $442.87 per vote. But it could top $1,000.
Welcome to the NFL.
Rich
posted by Rich Galen | 7:14 AM
29 Comments:
So Why the H--- doesn't Fred get in already??? This coy attitude he has about when he will declare, is wearing thin. Time to fish or cut bait.
Soooooon. Soooooon.
Rich
I think Fred was wise to skip the Iowa straw polls. Much ado about nothing!
The importance of Ames, is not the votes for the straw poll, but building an organization that can deliever voters for the caucuses in Jan (Dec?).
McCain (who had said several times he would compete in Ames), Rudy (who spent most of last week campaigningin Iowa) and Fred (who was signing up his 3rd,or was 4th, campaign manager) all did not run because they felt they could not win!
In the NFL, you have to take the field to win!
Right. But in the NFL you don't hoist the Superbowl Championship Trophy because you won the first pre-season game.
McCain is the perfect example: Spent who knows how much organizing Iowa in Feb and Mar; ran out of money so there is very little chance he can organize in Nov and Dec.
Romney spent, what $2-4 million to get a third of the votes in a straw poll?
If 4,000 votes in the caucuses wins, then Romeny will have been correct. I think that is a little shy of what will be needed next January.
We'll all be a lot smarter on Feb 5th.
Rich
These straw polls are really more about weeding out the "less-than-likelies" for president/veep. On another note, it shows, too, that these straw polls aren't absolutely necessary for the top tier candidates to compete. But it is getting out of control, nevertheless. We likely are going to have primaries for president beginning three years in advance at some point. Who knows, we may be asked to vote for a primary candidate at some point down the road 4 years in advance WHILE we actually are pulling the lever, cutting off chads, or filling in ovals (whatever we're doing in the future) for president! It is getting a bit, shall I say, rediculous. Don't you think?
On another note, it's about time we have a president named Fred...
Mitt's vote total would only have gotten him 3rd place in the 1999 straw vote.
32% against a field of Munchkins is not very impressive.
We in Phx let the Nats escape with some pride.
Quit worrying about Straw Pols, baseball is in full swing and the D'Backs let the Nats escape with a little dignity!
I'm a proponent of the "halo" effect in American politics.
The first weeks after Fred's announces will be the most important in determing his "mythology" with the the MSM and the great mass of voters who are fence sitters. We all are waiting for a " Sister Souljah" moment ( i.e. repudiation of an allegedly extremist person or group) or Reagan's" I paid for this microphone" in New Hamphire which illustrated a controlled and passionate anger.
Currently, for most folks, Fred is a blank canvas that will be filled in with broad brush stokes as soon as the annoucement occurs. These initial broad strokes are long lasting and critical to the overall campaign strategy.
I'm sure these are not new insights, but their reiteration underscores the signifcance.
Da Bear
(1) It's rational to withhold the announcement until a time after TOMMY Thompson officially withdraws, to avoid the probable name confusion.
(2) Keep an eye on Hillary Chameleon
and her random dialect generator. Fred's soft Tennessee accent may get more attention than his policy proposals.
Fred's saving money ... good for him. Remember Aesop's Tortoise and
Hare Fable.
Keep your shirts on, fellas!
Our "Hare" shirts?
Rich
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McCain (who had said several times he would compete in Ames), Rudy (who spent most of last week campaigningin Iowa) and Fred (who was signing up his 3rd,or was 4th, campaign manager) all did not run because they felt they could not win!
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