OMG More Hurricanes - or not
The headline was:
The two lead grafs were:
Ok then. If the total number of tropical storms has doubled over the past 100 years, and 55% can be "catagorized as hurricanes," then the number of hurricanes has stayed exactly the same.
As regular readers know I am arithmetically challenged and often get these sorts of things wrong. Plus, I am not a meteorologist (although I do watch the Weather Channel now and again).
If tropical storms and hurricanes are heat redistribution mechanisms of the atmosphere (moving heat from the lower to the higher latitudes) then having more small storms would appear to be a good thing, effectively reducing the probability of mega storms by releasing pressure on the heat exchanger.
Maybe not.
Rich
Hurricane Count Doubles
The two lead grafs were:
A DRAMATIC increase in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms can be fully explained only by global warming, scientists said yesterday.
In the past 100 years, the average number of tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic each year has doubled. Of these, roughly 55 per cent have been powerful enough to be categorized as hurricanes.
Ok then. If the total number of tropical storms has doubled over the past 100 years, and 55% can be "catagorized as hurricanes," then the number of hurricanes has stayed exactly the same.
As regular readers know I am arithmetically challenged and often get these sorts of things wrong. Plus, I am not a meteorologist (although I do watch the Weather Channel now and again).
If tropical storms and hurricanes are heat redistribution mechanisms of the atmosphere (moving heat from the lower to the higher latitudes) then having more small storms would appear to be a good thing, effectively reducing the probability of mega storms by releasing pressure on the heat exchanger.
Maybe not.
Rich
7 Comments:
There are many more problems with that report than just bad math. The biggest being they are estimating the number of hurricanes before the 60's which is before satellites and aircraft reconnaissance. How much you'd like to bet those estimates are low?
How is it possible that scientists who cannot fully explain global climate change can know that: "A DRAMATIC increase in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms can be fully explained only by global warming,..."?
How is it possible that scientists who cannot adequately model the two largest climate phenomena, cloud formation and precipitation, can nevertheless explain the most powerful of the cloud formation and precipitation events based on global warming?
Enquiring minds want to know.
My favorite thing is that this particular Chicken Little act comes during an amazingly mild storm season. (hint: last year wasn't so bad, either)
I'm with the swamp gitty above who attributes the increast more to better detection and classification than to the global warming boogey man.
Last year the story was more hurricanes than in 2005, which was a record year of some sort.
Exactly ZERO hurricanes made land fall in 2006. That was explained by El Nino and other effects. In fact, 2006 was one of the quietest tropical storm seasons in history.
This year forecasts are for a season as bad as 2007, but so far nothing. Yes, there are still three months left to go, but one would expect a steady stream of storms and storm threats by this point if it were really going to be that bad.
Why is that the same guys that can't predict weather three days in advance with any accuracy expect us to believe their forecasts for months or years?
Personally, I blame Cheney and Bush!
Hurricanes start as tropical storms/cyclones. If the number of tropical cyclones has doubled, and the percentage of those that become hurricanes has remained constant at 55%, then the number of hurricanes has doubled as well.
Yes ed,
Maybe its those same scientists who are somehow going to still proclaim the 'theory' of evolutuion is true even though they just discovered some skulls that prove it impossible. Its because like Evolution is their religion, so is Global Warming. It doesn't matter that there's proof against it being real or true-- they'll continue to stick with it. And lie about it. No matter what.
How can any really long term forecast be anywhere near accurate when any meteorologist will tell you that they have no idea why clouds do what they do? Heidi Cullen, I want you to explain to me why clouds do what they do. If you can do that I might not turn off the Weather Channel. Nah! Can't stand it since they went on their global warming kick.
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