Mullings: An American Cyber-column By Rich Galen

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Two Weeks Which May Change the World

Rich Galen

Wednesday November 10, 2004

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Sometimes there is a confluence of events which, by themselves are important, but taken as a group are nothing less than seismic.

Here are four such events which may well make November, 2004 an historic month: George W. Bush was re-elected President. Yasser Arafat will have died. The battle for Fallujah will be successfully prosecuted.. The Iranians appear to be moving toward an agreement on controlling their nukes.

President Bush, building on a clear win along with additional GOP strength in the US House and Senate, will set a clear path for America. Clarity of purpose during a time of war is crucial in dealing with friends and foes alike.

While our some-time allies in Europe pretend that the black-and-white view of the war on terror with which they view President Bush is too simplistic for their tastes, it does allow them to understand where America is likely to go and to decide whether they want to come along.

Yasser Arafat dying has nothing to do with the re-election of the President, of course. But what happens next will absolutely be influenced by it. If John Kerry had been elected, the Palestinians would be much more likely to wait until late January, when Mr. Kerry would have been inaugurated, then await signals from a Kerry foreign policy/national security team about how much more negotiating room they might get.

With President Bush remaining in the Oval Office, it is far more likely that the new Palestinian leadership in the post-Arafat era will be looking for the best deal it can get, as soon as it can get it.

SIDEBAR:

The vision of Jacques Chirac - who waited a full week to congratulate President Bush - all but keening and sobbing with grief at the foot of Arafat's hospital bed makes us wonder what Chirac believes is in this for him.

END SIDEBAR

The battle for Fallujah will be successful. Iraqi forces are fully involved with US Marine and Army elements and are, by all indications, performing very well. Whether we catch and/or kill Abu al-Zarqawi in Fallujah, or in Ramadi, or not at all this month, the operation will establish that the coalition forces are serious about ridding Iraq of the terrorists who have no goal but the destabilization of the nation.

It also further establishes the authority of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi over events in Iraq. His government now has enough confidence in its ability to manage political activities in Iraq to agree to the military operations. Five months ago, that was not the case.

This is a big deal as they move toward the elections in late January 2005.

Nothing in that region happens in a vacuum so it is not an accident that the well-telegraphed operation in Fallujah is coincident with Iran's possible agreement to cease development of weapons grade enriched uranium.

The theocracy in Iran may well be in jeopardy over the medium term in any event, but a successful transition to democracy in Iraq - its next-door neighbor - would certainly not be a good sign for the Mullahs ability to maintain power in Tehran.

The only one of these four events which is at issue is the Iranian piece. If it doesn't happen this week, and if it doesn't happen the way it appears to be going this week their nuclear program will be disabled in the near future.

Events which are important in their own right, taken together, can change the flow of history. Take notes this fortnight. You may be witnessing such a confluence.

On the Secret Decoder Ring today: The etymology of "fortnight," a link to the Fallujah Travelogue from my Iraq stint, an amusing Mullfoto and a Catchy Caption of the Day.

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