Mullings: An American Cyber-column By Rich Galen

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Galen in the Lion's Den

Rich Galen

Wednesday October 13, 2004

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From Tempe, Arizona
The Site of the Third & Final Presidential Debate

I got to sit in on a meeting of the opposition on Tuesday. I was not undercover. My identity was not hidden from view. I was invited to a lunch which featured four big-time Democrats: A lawyer, two writers and a pollster.

And me.

The audience was a group of Democratic foreign policy experts who have been working on a variety of task forces to try and make sense of any of the Kerry campaign's many plans to meet Global Tests after January 20, 2005.

When I was introduced I said, waving my arm across the audience, "Lion's Den. Daniel. Me."

They sort of laughed in that pseudo-good-natured way that people do just before they whisper to each other wondering who invited him.

The Democrats think they can win. They believe - not that Kerry is the man to save the world - but that the Bush Presidency is so flawed that even Kerry is preferable.

They believe, following the second debate, that Kerry is on a roll. And they believe that he will drive the final nail into the Bush campaign's coffin in the final debate here in Tempe, Arizona.

It was instructive that that two writers gave the most impassioned reasons for the inevitability of a Kerry victory three weeks hence. The lawyer seemed be stretching his case - like he was making his final argument to a jury and asking for mercy, not because his client was innocent, but because the client couldn't help himself.

The pollster was the briefest of all: He said the numbers looked good. He said Kerry was gaining in the battleground states. He said he thought Kerry was going to win; but I have been with this pollster many times in the past and he didn't seem, to my ears, as convinced of his statements as I have heard him on other occasions, talking about other campaigns.

In fact, some of the points he made - like the issue-handling numbers for President Bush, and his overall favorability and job approval numbers - seemed to suggest that the President is in far better shape than the polling-bureau of the Kerry campaign would like him to be.

One of the things which astounded me was the assertion that the media is being prejudiced � against KERRY!

I'm serious about this. They actually believe the media is unfairly crediting Bush lies about Kerry. Like when the Bush campaign said that Kerry had said that terrorism should be reduced to background noise like prostitution. Lies like that.

For those of you who didn't get past the comics section in this past Sunday's New York Times Magazine, Kerry did say that; the Bush campaign rolled out an ad telling everyone that Kerry said that, and the Kerry campaign immediately began complaining that the Bush campaign was lying about Kerry.

Go figure.

When it was my turn, I said that I thought President Bush would be re-elected because the American people understand we are at war and Senator Kerry hasn't made the case that he can run that war as well as, much less better than, President Bush.

I also said that the public tracking polls were shifting back in the President's favor and, depending upon what happens in the debate, that might well mark a trend which the Kerry campaign will not be able to overcome.

One of the people there was Sidney Blumenthal, late of the Clinton White House. Sidney and I were on an NPR program last year when his book came out. The host asked me if I had read the book and I said what I always say about non-fiction: "I only read it if there are a lot of pictures and if I'm in it."

"You are in it," Sidney said. "I quoted you."
"New rule," I said on the air. "I have to be a chapter header."

And you wonder why I am not often introduced as "a leading intellectual."

On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Another Mullfoto from Florence, a link to the NY Times Magazine piece; and the usual stuff.

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