Mullings: An American Cyber-column By Rich Galen

�

Click here for the Secret Decoder Ring to this issue!

Become a
Paid Mullings Subscriber!

(To join the FREE mailing list or to unsubscribe Click Here)

Carville Poll: Bush Advances

Rich Galen

Monday October 04, 2004

Click here for an Easy Print Version

LAST DAY!

The Fall Subscription drive ends today. Remember, your subscription will not automatically renew. You must go to the web page to accomplish your Mullings subscription renewal.

From Rome & Florence, Italy
Citizen Diplomat Program
US Department of State

The debate between President Bush and Senator Kerry was held at 9:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time. That is three in the morning, in Old Europe. I didn't see the debate until the US Embassy held a replay for Italian reporters - and me - at about 11:00 am Rome time.

I awoke at about seven to check out the wires and see what the instant punditry had to say. Give or take a few exclamation points, the coverage was all the same: Bush Loses! Kerry Wins! Yee Hah!

In fact, the early analysis was so awful I was certain I was going to have to divert my eyes, hold my hands over my ears, sing "la-la-la" and hide under my seat during the debate; the President had performed so badly.

I watched the debate. And I was shocked. I found I agreed with Kerry spokesman, Joe Lockhart who was reported to have said (when another Kerry spokesman Mike McCurry asked him how he thought it had gone) "It was a draw."

I waited for the President to throw up on his shoes, or to free Poland, or to exhibit flop sweat, or to forget the name of an important country. But none of those things happened.

In fact, an informal poll of the 30-or-so Italian reporters and editors who watched the debate with me indicated that they thought Kerry was a better debater, but that they didn't think it would change the dynamics of the campaign.

I am a good debater. I was a good debater in college. I was a good debater in college because I found I could make up quotes when I needed them and get away with it. It was then I realized politics was for me, the anchor chair at CBS not being available to me at the time.

An excellent debating point I made to my Italian friends was the disconnect between Kerry's desire to quit what he insists is our "go-it-alone policy" and widen the coalition in Iraq while, at the same time insisting that we establish a "go-it-alone policy" and disband the five-country coalition we have working with us on the North Korea issue.

That was in addition to my making the argument that, notwithstanding Kerry's strong desire to have other countries - read France and Germany - join us in a security mission in Iraq, both nations, just this past week, have firmly announced that no such thing is going to happen.

On the polling front, of the three polls which were available in Florence Sunday afternoon, two of them - the LA Times and James Carville's Democracy Corps - each found that while Kerry gained very slightly in the head-to-head polling the gain was so small as to be statistically insignificant: One point in the LA Times poll, two in Carville's.

Only the Newsweek poll - which must have sampled the Washington Post newsroom (the Post owns Newsweek) - showed a significant move in Kerry's direction.

In the Carville poll the head-to-head went from 50-46 Bush to 50-48 Bush. But, in the job performance question Bush went from 51-49 to 52-48 - a two-point shift in the opposite direction!

AND, as long as we're this deeply into the weeds anyway, on the Right Direction/Wrong Track question in James' poll, before the debate, 56 percent the country was off on the wrong track, 43 said it was going in the right direction..

After the debate - remember this is James Carville's poll - it shifted TOWARD the President by six points to 53-46.

Where is the surge toward Kerry, again?

To be fair, Kerry advanced on a number of questions as well, but he's got to catch Bush and he won't do that if Bush keeps gaining in the public's mind.

Kerry, remember, gained in national polling after his hour-long acceptance speech only to fall back when normal campaigning resumed. He will fall back again.

Kerry may be able to perform for 60 or 90 minutes but the question facing America is whether he can perform for four years.

On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Links to the Democracy Corps and LA Times polls, a Mullfoto from the Vatican and a mildly amusing Catchy Caption of the Day.

Current Issue | Secret Decoder Ring | Past Issues | Email Rich | Rich Who?