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We're Goin' De-bate City, Gonna Have Some Fun
Friday, September 26, 2003
Pre-California Debate prattle: "They have the questions in advance, it will be too controlled."
Post-California Debate prattle: "All that free-lancing; it was out-of-control!"
Let me state for the record that what we see in the Eastern Time Zone may have nothing whatever to do with what is actually going on in the Pacific Time Zone, but I get paid to analyze these things, so analyze I shall.
As a general rule, people tend to see in debates (and debaters) what they want to see. Thus they tend to focus on the best parts of the performance of the candidate they liked in the first place; and spotlight the worst parts of the performance of the candidates like opposed going in.
Thus, debates don't often change people's minds from Candidate A to Candidate B; if they change anything all, it will be from undecided to one of the candidates.
With that in mind, a summary:
Cruz Bustamante
Strategy: To convince people that he is a serious, informed, stable alternative to Gray Davis; to avoid mistakes and not directly engage Arnold so as not to risk a comparison in persuasiveness.
Performance: Was SO stable, at one point they seemed about to call out the paramedics.
Result: Had little new to share, didn't do much to convince me he could energize the state legislature, seemed to be happy to disappear into the background.
Peter Camejo
Strategy: To get into the game and get enough votes to make the Green Party something more than a temporary electoral blip like the Reform Party.
Performance: Toed the liberal line on every subject. Did a good job in presenting his knowledge of the issues. If I were a Lefty, I'd take another look.
Result: Started out at about three percent of the vote will likely end up with about the same. No one is likely to be trying to decide between Camejo and Schwarzenegger, so every vote he gets will come from Bustamante.
Arianna Huffington
Strategy: To get under Arnold's skin and make news: The debate equivalent of the stalking maneuver she executed the day Arnold filed his papers.
Performance: Got under Arnold's skin and made news. As one friend said yesterday, "It's no wonder her ex-husband went over to the other team."
Result: If anyone took her seriously before, they won't any more. To the extent anyone votes for her, she is more likely to take votes from Bustamante.
Tom McClintock
Strategy: To demonstrate that, as the most knowledgeable person in the race, he deserves a shot while convincing his Conservative base to stay with him through election day.
Performance: Far and away the best on the issues. Never engaged Arnold; thereby not angering anyone. However, by playing exclusively to his base, he did nothing to reach out to Moderates.
Result: Probably sealed his fate as the third place finisher in this race. Political debates are not like college debates; they are not won or lost on logic or facts. Style points. Its all about style points.
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Strategy: To show just enough "leg" to convince undecideds he knows enough - if not to run the state - at least not to be hoodwinked by the Sacramento crowd. Not to let Arianna get under his skin.
Performance: Yes on One; no on Two. He did demonstrate enough general knowledge to show he can manage the Governor's office; but he fell into Arianna's trap and the next-day coverage was all about the "Adam's Rib" nature of the exchanges.
Result: Will probably pick up enough endorsements (starting with Bill Simon) to build a bandwagon effect for the last two weeks.
Except for Arianna, the candidates demonstrated enough depth to allow Californians to feel more comfortable in recalling Davis, so look for that number to stabilize or begin to inch back upwards over the next few days.
McClintock's only rationale for staying in the race was that his numbers were moving up. If they stall or begin moving down then whether he stays in or gets out is of no moment. He will be marginalized and end up in the mid-single-digits on election day.
If Arnold makes no major blunders in the next 10 days he will be the Governor of California.
On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A WONDERFUL Mullfoto; a funny Catchy Caption of the day and the lyrics from the famous Jan & Dean song.
--END --
Copyright © 2003 Richard A. Galen
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