Mullings: An American Cyber-column By Rich Galen

�

Click here for the Secret Decoder Ring to this issue!

Click here to keep up with Galen's Speaking Schedule

Looking for a back issue of Mullings? They're in the Archives

Two Polls

Friday September 20, 2002

Here is a link to a page of MullPhotos taken at the ceremony commemorating the September 11 attacks at the Pentagon. Be warned - it has 13 photos and will take some time to load on a dial-up line.

Click here for an Easy Print Version

Two new polls released by the Republican Leadership Council (see the full disclosure statement at the end) help point out why the Democrats generally, and Tom Daschle in particular, have begun to exhibit projectile sweat as they look about 46 days down the road toward the November 5 elections.

The polls cover New Jersey Senate, where incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Torricelli was supposed to have a fairly easy ride to re-election in this Democratic state, and Connecticut where Republican incumbent Nancy Johnson and Democratic incumbent Jim Maloney were thrown together in the same Congressional district as Connecticut lost a seat in Congress following the 2000 census.

The head-to-heads are as follows:

NJ Senate: Forrester (R) 39% - Torricelli (D) 36%
Connecticut CD-5: Johnson (R) 49% - Maloney (D) 37%

The New Jersey race was supposed to be a fairly easy ride for Torricelli. The GOP is fielding a businessman with no electoral political experience, Doug Forrester.

When Forrester won the GOP primary earlier this year the National Republican Senatorial Committee folks were very pleased saying they had gotten a moderate Republican with no ethical baggage.

Torricelli's personal style is often described as "fiery," hence his nickname: The Torch. Fiery is not a adjective a fair observer would apply to Forrester.

When Democratic operatives have pointed this out to me, I have responded with the following: "I have two words for you - Clifford Case."

The Democrats chuckled privately and publicly when Republicans said this was a possible GOP pick up. Then came the Senate Ethics Committee ruling that Torricelli's campaign fundraising activities rated him a "severe admonishment," which the Washington Post characterized as "one of the sternest condemnations of a member in recent years."

The Torricelli camp hoped that between that ruling in July and the election in November, the folks back home would rally 'round, but it hasn't happened. If you are an incumbent you do not want to have barely a third of the electorate says they are voting for you with about six weeks to go.

New Jersey Senate is a seat that was supposed to be in the bag. It is, instead, in play.

In Connecticut, the conventional wisdom was that Jim Maloney would run his standard campaign, which is to bob up and down in the political waters and then run a sharply negative campaign at the end to skewer his opponent.

The problem with this technique against Nancy Johnson is that she isn't skewer-able.

Here's an example. In the poll there is a question which asks: Between Nancy Johnson and Jim Maloney, whom do you believe is better described as, "someone who will protect social security?"

Remember that Social Security, in the minds of the national Democrats, is the strongest issue they have. In Connecticut-5 Nancy Johnson leads on the Social Security issue by 39% - 31%.

If the Democrat is eight percentage points behind in the strongest Democratic issue ... say goodnight Gracie.

CT-5 is a seat which was supposed to be in play. It is, instead in the bag.

For those who keep assuring us on television that the job approval or favorability of George W. Bush is not having an impact, consider this. In New Jersey - not the strongest GOP state on the map - the president has a favorability rating of 66%-25%. In the Fifth District of Connecticut it is even higher: 69%-23%.

The Gallup poll released this week has President Bush's national job approval at 70%.

Now you understand why Tom Daschle has completely folded on foreign policy and has decided to try and return the national debate back to domestic issues.

There are still 46 days to go and there are probably two more swings of the pendulum. If the last swing is toward the GOP, then the President's judicial nominees will start moving to the Senate floor on or about next January 3.

Full Disclosure Notification: I am under contract to the Republican Leadership Council as its senior communications counsel.

On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: The top line data on the two polls as released by the RLC and the usual stuff.
--END --
Copyright © 2002 Richard A. Galen

If you are working at a lobbying firm, a government affairs office, a coalition, or a PAC you should take a look at this page to see how advertising in Mullings might serve your organization very well:

Current Issue | Secret Decoder Ring | Past Issues | Email Rich | Rich Who?