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In the Warm California Sun
Presented by:
The Republican Leadership Council
Monday, September 15, 2003
From Los Angeles, California
The California State GOP Convention
To review the bidding, the recall election in California will be held on October 7. Voters get to vote on two questions regarding the recall: (1) Shall Gray Davis be recalled and, (2) If so, who should replace him as Governor. Everyone gets to vote on question 2 no matter how they vote on question 1.
Gray Davis must get more than 50 percent of the votes or he's gone. If he does NOT get 50% then whoever gets the most votes on question 2 becomes the Governor. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume Governor Davis gets recalled.
The race on question 2 has come down to Lt. Gov. Cruz (pronounced "cruise") Bustamante on the Democratic side; against Arnold Schwarzenegger and State Senator Tom McClintock on the GOP side.
McClintock is a well-known Conservative. Arnold is � Arnold.
Having parachuted into California to attend the state GOP convention over the weekend, here's what I believe is going on in California on the Republican side:
The delegates to the California Republican Party convention in LA are a pretty Conservative bunch. Without assigning blame, it has been the chasm between the Conservative and the Moderates in California which has led to Democratic majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and Democrats holding every statewide elected office.
If both McClintock and Arnold stay in this to the end, they will split enough Republican votes to hand the election to Bustamante.
The delegates, generally, like McClintock but they don't think they can win. Without claiming any scientific accuracy I think three out of every four people I talked to - political pro, delegate, or hanger-on - said that if it is close coming down to the end they will vote for Arnold.
Arnold supporters kept asking me if I thought McClintock would drop out. I said I didn't know, but he was unlikely to say anything other than "I'm in this until the end" until one of two things happens: The end comes; or, he drops out.
In a poll released on Thursday, the LA Times had it:
Bustamante - 30
Schwarzenegger - 25
McClintock - 18
The McClintock people were working hard - obviously with the aid of talking points - buttonholing attendees buy into the suggestion that, because McClintock has been improving his standing in the public polls, Arnold is the candidate who should be thinking of dropping out.
However, just about every person who tried that out on me had trouble with the following two questions: 1. Don't you think McClintock actually has to surpass Arnold at some point before Arnold drops out, and 2. Do you think McClintock can beat Bustamante even if Arnold dropped out?
Uncomfortable as the California Republican Party (CRP) types might be with the notion, the people around Arnold - the Pete Wilson people - have won four statewide campaigns: Two for U.S. Senate and two for Governor. That team has a level of sophistication which the McClintock team cannot match.
As an example, the Arnold team held a double-secret meeting (which my ally Melanie Morgan of KSFO invited me to) specifically to bring Conservatives who have switched to Arnold (because they believe he can win) into the same room with unreconstructed Conservatives to help them become comfortable with the notion of endorsing Arnold.
When I walked into the meeting, the guy leading it told me it was off the record. "Yeah," I said. "Three radio talk show hosts, two Members of Congress, two reporters and me. This will stay off the record."
Two different high-level Schwarzenegger insiders told me (in two different locations on two different days) their internal polling had the race at:
Schwarzenegger - 37
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 12
At a fundraiser at the home of Mullster Shelly Sloan on Sunday, Arnold and his wife Maria Shriver wowed the 120-or-so people who attended the $1,000 per person reception. As we have discussed earlier, money flows to the candidate people think will win.
I have not seen anything which would lead me to believe the people at the Sloan reception are wrong.
On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A primer on how you approach walking into something like the CRP reception and making any sense out of it; and a SURPRISING Mullfoto of the Mullmeister and the co-host of that reception.
--END --
Copyright © 2003 Richard A. Galen
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