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And the Sky is Gray
Wednesday, September 10, 2003
TRAVELOGUE ALERT! Mullings goes to California starting Saturday. Back silk shirts, gold chains, a deep tan from a bottle! Goodbye Brooks Brothers, hello Versace!
A check of Google indicates the last time we discussed the California recall in any detail was way back on August 22, so it's time to review and evaluate.
Yesterday Peter Uberroth announced he was dropping out of the race. According to the most recent poll by the Field organization, Mr. Uberroth was getting about five percent of the vote and he, apparently, decided this was not going to get any better.
Uberroth was running as a Republican, so his departure now leaves only two GOP candidates in the race, Arnold Schwarzenegger and State Senator Tom McClintock.
The poll has Arnold running behind Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante 30% - 25%.
McClintock has, according to the Field analysis, "strengthened his third place position, moving from 9% to 13%."
The problem is that third place is � third place.
Without having talked to anyone in either campaign I suspect the McClintock folks will hang in for the next two weeks and see what happens (a) as the polling continues and (b) after the only debate in which Schwarzenegger has agreed to participate on September 24.
McClintock's folks are cheering the poll - as they should - by pointing out his movement was the highest percentage change. But, that's a little like batting .047 and going four-for-four and coming out of the game batting .147: You've improved 100 points, but you're not likely to be contending for the batting title.
If Arnold exceeds expectations in the debate, I would not be surprised if McClintock bowed out and threw his support to Schwarzenegger. At that point there will be just under two weeks to go before the October 7 election and, if he remains in the low-to-mid teens, there is no good reason for Senator McClintock to play the spoiler and, in effect, throw the election to Bustamante.
The Field poll points out that when asked who they would favor if the election were just between Bustamante and Schwarzenegger, Arnold picks up eight points and leads 33-30, so whether McClintock stays in or gets out is not just idle chatter.
If, on the other hand, Schwarzenegger does not do well in that debate, then look for a surge toward McClintock.
That's the GOP side.
On the Democratic side, things are no less interesting.
The Field poll indicates that those who favor recalling Gray Davis has slipped slightly from 58% last month to 55% in this survey. What the headlines are not saying is that the percentage of those who oppose recalling Davis is at 40. That's still a 15 percentage point gap which Davis has to make up without any help whatsoever from his Lt. Gov.
Bustamante, in a debate last night, neglected to mentioned the "Vote No on Recall; Vote Yes on Bustamante" slogan. His campaign has resolved into the second part of that slogan - Vote Yes on Bustamante. And that's it.
With Bustamante opening up a five point lead on Arnold, Gray Davis can no longer depend upon saving his job by generating anger among his supporters aimed at the "right-wing Conservatives."
Davis cannot allow the conventional wisdom among Democrats to drift into "Gray is so badly flawed, we might was well go with Cruz."
Davis must attack whoever is leading on Question Two. Attacking Schwarzenegger only helps Davis if Arnold is leading Cruz. With Bustamante leading Arnold, Davis will have to knock him down first, then turn his fire on Arnold in the last week of the campaign.
Dear Mr. Mullings: The only thing we have read which is more complicated than this explanation is the user's manual of our VCR.
Signed,
The Nuclear Physics Research Team
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A link to the Field Poll. A photo of the Mullman in his Versace outfit, a very sweet Mullfoto, and the usual things.
--END --
Copyright © 2003 Richard A. Galen
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