You know the numbers: All 435 members of the U.S. House are up for re-election. The first party which gets to 218 seats controls. The Democrats currently have 212 seats so they need a net gain of six to take control for the first time since 1995.
The operating theory, as we move within 58 days of the midterm elections, is this: There are about 30 House seats which are in play, and they are split about evenly: 15 leaning Republican and 15 leaning Democrat.
One of those 30 is Oklahoma's 4th District. The seat which was made open by the retirement of Republican J.C. Watts.
As regular readers know, I avoid real reporting like a housecat avoids a lawn sprinkler, but I actually went to Norman, Oklahoma to take a look at this race.
Oklahoma 4 starts just south of Oklahoma City and runs south to the Texas border covering a good deal of the southwest quadrant of the state, the result of Oklahoma having lost a Congressional seat in last year's re-apportionment.
It includes Tinker Air Force Base, Fort Sill Army Base, and the main campus of the University of Oklahoma at Norman.
Oklahoma 4 is one of those districts which, if you only looked at the raw data, would lead you to believe it is a drop-kick for a Democratic pick up. It is a 35 percent GOP district with almost no independents. About 62 percent of voters say they are Democrats.
But, in politics as in sailing, local knowledge is much more important than what you see on a chart. In this case, 65 percent identify themselves as Conservatives.
To demonstrate the fact that you would not mistake OK-04 for CA-09 (which includes Berkeley), this district supports President Bush by a massive 75-23 majority.
The Democrat in OK-04 is Darryl Roberts. He is, according to his web site, a four-term State Senator and - importantly in this district - a decorated combat veteran as an officer in the Marine Corps.
The Republican is Tom Cole. He was born in the district, is a Fulbright scholar, with a masters degree from Yale and a Ph.D. from Oklahoma.
But Cole is not an academic in search of real-world experience. He has been GOP state chairman for Oklahoma, and was the chief of staff at the Republican National Committee during the 2000 election cycle.
Cole, too, has been a State Senator, succeeding his mother, Helen, who had been only the third woman ever elected to the State Senate in Oklahoma.
The Roberts campaign will try to cross-pressure Conservatives with his military history; Cole will cross-pressure Liberals with his academic background; an interesting set of circumstances in this district with large military AND academic constituencies.
Cole's campaign will highlight economic growth and will point to Roberts' fairly Liberal State Senate voting record which includes support for early release for felons and strong support for at least four tax increases.
Roberts will be running the standard Democratic campaign: Heavy on Social Security and prescription drugs with a wave toward environmental issues. The need for jobs makes the-environment-at-the-cost-of-economic-growth argument a difficult one to make once you get off the O.U. campus.
The campaigns will cost between $800,000 and a million, a good deal of it coming from the outside.
The Trial Lawyers, AFL-CIO, and teachers' union appear to have made plans to come in here with soft-money expenditures on behalf of Roberts. The NRA, the National Federation of Independent Business, and the U.S. Chamber will come to Cole's aid.
Cole also has the strong support of the man he proposes to replace, J.C. Watts. Watts' support of Cole in the primary had an huge impact on the GOP vote; and there is no reason to believe his active support won't have a similar effect in the general election.
As of this writing most observers have the race about even, leaning R. If Cole goes on to win, as I suspect he will, Speaker Hastert may have to save a good committee assignment for freshman Congressman Tom Cole as a reward for having saved a seat for the GOP.
On the Secret Decoder Ring page today, links to both candidates' web pages, a great catchy caption, and a link to the Travelogue about my Donahue appearance (in case you were absent last week).
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