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Memo to Kerry Campaign
Rich Galen Monday September 6, 2004
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From Manama, Bahrain
DOUBLE-SECRET STRATEGY MEMO
FOR KFP USE ONLY.
DO NOT DUPLICATE. DO NOT FORWARD
Dear Senator Kerry:
I am in Bahrain for purely business reasons. I am not, as some are suggesting, looking for new places for Alec Baldwin and Rosie O'Donnell to live if Bush wins in the wake of the two big newsweekly polls.
In spite of the 11-point lead Bush has opened up in both the Time and Newsweek Magazine polls, all is not lost. It is quite likely the exuberance over President Bush's acceptance speech will fade and you will be able to crawl out of the mire in which your campaign finds itself.
The Newsweek poll, Senator, was taken over two nights last week. After the first three night's speeches you trailed Bush by only six points, 49-43. BARELY outside the margin of error.
Among those who were polled following the President's acceptance speech - you trailed by slightly more: SIXTEEN points, 54-38.
We should be happy that on Friday morning, President Bush had to share the front pages with the Russian school hostage tragedy; hurricane Frances; President Clinton's cardiac problems; and the Labor Department report which showed 144,000 new jobs created in August.
Imagine what the polling might have looked like if Bush had the day all to himself.
Inside the combined Newsweek numbers, the good news was you LED Bush by:
22 points among Non-whites
68 points among Democrats
The slightly less good news was, you TRAILED Bush by:
5 points among independents
5 points among non-military households
6 points among seniors
7 points among women
10 points among non-Southern whites
11 points among those 30-49
15 points among men
22 points among military households
36 points among Southern whites
90 points among Republicans
Only four percent of Republicans are backing you, Senator Kerry, while 14 percent of Democrats are supporting Bush. To fix this, I suggest you repeat your two very best appearances over the past few weeks: Windsurfing off Nantucket and trap shooting in Ohio. If anything will peel Bush-Democrats away, that will do it.
However, reporting such as this from Knight-Ridder's Tom Fitzgerald and Ron Hutcheson is not helpful.
"He hit four out of 10 of the clay pigeons that sailed over the alfalfa toward a field of soybeans - though the hosts said the trajectory of the targets was too low."
New Rules: Pretending to be a man 'o the people by shooting in alfalfa and soybean fields - good. Blaming your crappy aim on the guy launching the targets - bad.
Time Magazine's poll - which finished on Thursday and thus might not be fully reflective of the President's speech - showed those who thought President Bush deserved reelection led those who wanted someone else by only 51-47. However, three weeks earlier that number was 43-53; a net change of plus 14 for Bush.
We have to stop people like Andy Kohut of the Pew Research Center from saying, as Newsday's Ken Fireman reported: "It's not the end of the game for Kerry, but this is a really big problem for him, and it shows that his campaign is failing and Bush's is succeeding."
We also have to get a muzzle on those Washington, DC geniuses who think your campaign is in the dumper. No more stories like the NY Times piece by Adam Nagourney and Jodi Wilgoren:
"[Senior] Democrats said Mr. Bush's convention, combined with an aggressive advertising effort by former Vietnam veterans with ties to Mr. Bush's supporters to discredit Mr. Kerry's war record, had turned this contest away from a referendum on Mr. Bush's presidency and into a referendum on Mr. Kerry's character, war record and stand on Iraq.
"Some Democrats described this as an ominous development that Mr. Kerry had to address."
In conclusion, Senator Kerry, I believe we are in exactly the place we want to be: Bush has a double-digit lead, but he has to protect it for the next 57 days.
If you need me, I'll be in the Souk.
On the Secret Decoder Ring Page today: Links to the major stories above, what a souk is, PLUS two Mullfotos - one showing how cool and nice it is in Bahrain; the other showing that, yet again, not everyone was thrilled about having the GOP in New York.
--END --
Copyright © 2004 Richard A. Galen
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