Senator John McCain's pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate is was unexpected. Upon further reflection, however, McCain's choice isn't terribly surprising; ultimately he was going to choose someone that shares his core values. When seen through that prism, Governor Palin seems like an obvious choice. As a person who built her reputation on frugality, reducing government waste and bucking her own party, she and John McCain are kindred spirits. In addition, this type of decision is not one that should surprise anyone. Senator McCain has never been a conventional politician and certainly his candidacy this cycle has been anything but traditional. Why, then, would he choose a textbook running mate?

Gov. Palin's choice shows both strategic and tactical savvy on the part of the McCain campaign. Taking the broad view, Sarah Palin represents a demographic more energized in the Presidential process this year than perhaps any in history. She can clearly aim at the women so enthralled by Senator Hillary Clinton's candidacy and who, even after both Clintons' affirmation of Barack Obama in Denver, cannot bring themselves to vote for the newly-minted Democratic nominee. In addition, as a card-carrying member of the NRA who is a pro-life woman married to a member of the steelworkers union, Governor Palin brings the best of both worlds: she opens the door to 'hockey moms' and blue-collar voters and secures a sometimes-restive conservative base within the Republican Party. All those swing voters in the target states of the Midwest, hiding behind God and their guns, will find much in common with Governor Palin and her husband.

Change. It has been the cornerstone of Barack Obama's campaign for the presidency. He was a different candidate, with a different message, speaking to people left out of the process. With his pick of Senator Joe Biden as a running mate and his well-delivered yet basic rehash of Democratic dogma in Denver, Obama has ceded the change-agent mantle. John McCain, on the other hand, with his career-long history of bucking establishment and now with his pick running mate, has shifted the dynamic of who will actually bring change to Washington, DC should he ascend to the White House.

Moments after the media confirmed McCain's choice of Sarah Palin, the Obama campaign released an obviously hastily composed statement claiming that experience was no longer 'on the table' as an issue for the duration of the campaign. Setting aside the arrogance of dictating what will and will not be an issue, the Democrats claimed that a two-year governor of a small state (which happens to be bigger than half the continental US) whose previous offices were that of mayor and city council member is not qualified to be Vice President of the United States. This charge was made by the campaign of a candidate who has only been in the United States Senate for four years and has spent two of those running for president; all the while studiously avoiding any legislative issues that may have hampered his effort or ambition.

The Obama campaign's initial reaction, however, was telling. Having spent the last month unable to drive a message, they immediately attacked their new opponent and denigrated her experience as a small-town mayor. One could venture a guess that most folks in Kansas or similar places know who their mayor is far better than they know their US Senators. Continuing a narrative that will haunt the Obama campaign into the fall, they turn their noses up at 'regular' Americans, who have worked hard for what they believe in and reached great heights. Apparently you're only allowed to pull yourself up by your bootstraps if you're at the top of the ticket.

Tactically, much like their off-kilter and bumbling response to McCain's celebrity ad, the Obama campaign was clearly caught off-guard by the Palin choice and over-reached in their initial critique having to go back later in the day and 'welcome' Governor Palin to the contest. Their opposition research department will probably have to work through the Labor Day holiday to make up for their oversight.

It will be interesting to watch how Senators Obama and Biden approach Governor Palin as the fall campaign unfolds. She is clearly a smart, successful, determined woman. That's in addition to being a mother of five, one of whom is about to be deployed to Iraq. Should they decide to go ugly, the boomerang effect could be devastating amongst suburban and blue-collar women. Senator Clinton will probably be watching closely. When the vice presidential nominees debate in early October, Senator Biden will have the advantages of debate and foreign policy experience. His advantages may be overshadowed, though, should he allow what's become a famous ability to fire off one-liners without thinking. This takes nothing away from Governor Palin; quite the contrary, she will have the one thing Biden will not: the ability to be herself.

Ultimately, campaigns are about Presidential candidates, not their running mates. But this year's selection process illuminates how both men made their decisions. Barack Obama's choice was one borne of fear: fear of being overshadowed by Hillary Clinton, fear of being painted as unready to be commander-in-chief and fear, ironically, of being too-different. Decisions made in that context are rarely good ones. Senator McCain's choice of Governor Sarah Palin was borne of opportunity: the opportunity to change Washington, the opportunity to create a new political dynamic and the opportunity to make history. Those opportunities sound down right Obaman.

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