Mullings An American Cyber Column By Rich Galen

US & Int'l Papers

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Bye, Bye, Bi-Partisan

Monday August 14, 2006

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NOTE: I attended my high school reunion in New Jersey this weekend. Read the first two installments on the Secret Decoder Ring Page today!

In November 1994, Newt Gingrich led his troops into the mid-term elections and they emerged in control of the US House for the first time in 40 years.

Democrats and their allies in the popular press immediately began a drumbeat that the Gingrich Republicans would kill off the holy grail of American politics: Bi-partisanship.

Last week, those same Democrats and those same allies were dancing in the streets over the defeat of Sen. Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary in Connecticut.

Why? He wasn't partisan enough for them.

Over the years I have pointed out that the Democratic definition of bi-partisan is: "Do what we want."

On our regular Saturday Fox News Channel appearance, Democrat Bob Beckel pointed out that Democratic turnout in Connecticut was near record levels and the turnout among Democrats voting in the Cynthia McKinney run-off was similarly high.

Beckel was making the point that the Democratic base is poised and ready to make some noise in November.

I countered with a memo by Republican pollster Fred Steeper which was written after a survey of Republican base voters:

Intended turnout from the Base � is extremely high. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are "almost certain" to vote this November, and another 14% say they are "very likely" to vote.

Steeper points out that these vote intention levels are very close to the actual turnout in the 2004 election. The secret to having a great mid-term election is getting your base to turn out at the levels they do in a Presidential election.

On Saturday my point was: Let's assume both Beckel (Democratic turnout in November will be high), and Steeper (GOP turnout in November will be high) are correct.

Congressional Districts were largely drawn in 2002 to protect incumbents: Democrats got every Democratic voter they could lasso; Republican districts have every Republican they could vacuum up.

If there is a high base turnout on both sides this will be excellent news for incumbents. If a Republican gets anything like the 95% GOP turnout Steeper is projecting, there aren't enough Democrats left in the typical Republican District to overcome that.

Similarly, if Dems turn out in high numbers in Democratic Congressional Districts, there aren't enough Republicans to turn the rascals out.

Independent voters don't generally vote in high numbers in mid-term elections and don't vote as a bloc in any event.

The staging of the victory speech by the man who defeated Lieberman, Ned Lamont, has already reached the level of the Dean Scream in Iowa in 2004. Lamont had Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton well within the frame directly behind him, and Maxine Waters (who is a Member of Congress from California, not Connecticut) was in every interview with every reporter all through the evening.

The very next day, Michael Moore jumped in with an open letter to Democrats generally and to Hillary Clinton in particular:

"I'm here to tell you that you [Hillary] will never make it through the Democratic primaries unless you start now by strongly opposing the war. It is your only hope ... Last night's voter revolt took place just a few miles from your home in Chappaqua. Did you hear the noise? Can you read the writing on the wall?"

Michael Moore. Maxine Waters. Al Sharpton. Jesse Jackson. Paragons of bi-partisanship. Load 'em up and take 'em on the road. Let them be the faces and the voices of the Democratic Party.

It is entirely possible that the electorate will be so frightened at the prospect of turning the nation's security over to the Four Horsemen of the Electoral Apocalypse - Moore, Waters, Sharpton and Jackson - that they decide the status quo may not be perfect, but it is safer than making that kind of change.

If that is so, this November's elections will not so much resemble 1994 when Gingrich took over control of the House; but rather 1998 when he misjudged the electorate and lost five seats instead of the 8-10 seats he was expected to pick up.

On the Secret Decoder Ring Page today: Links to the Fred Steeper Memo and to Michael Moore's open letter; The link to the Reunion! Travelogue; a Mullfoto of an actual road sign for those who sometimes get off their meds; and a Catchy Caption of the Day.

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