Mullings: An American Cyber-column By Rich Galen

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Is it That Time Already?

Rich Galen

Friday August 05, 2005

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Welcome to the dog days of summer. I know you have been meaning to Google why August is called the dog days but you haven't done it, so I did it for you. According to Merriam-Webster's Third Unabridged the phrase derives from:

[A] translation of Late Latin dies caniculares, translation of Greek he merai kynades; from their being reckoned in ancient times from the heliacal rising of the Dog Star (Sirius)

Innerestin', huh?

Much more, in fact, that the Gallup Poll released yesterday which declared the winner of the 2008 Presidential election to be a Republican. According to a Gallup poll, either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Senator John McCain would beat Hillary Clinton, and either would enjoy a landslide victory over John Kerry.

Either Giuliani or McCain beats Clinton 50-45 in a head-to-head match up. And either of the two would crush Kerry 54-41.

A the result of a great bit of research by Melissa DeLaney, I can report that the Gallup folks took poll in 2001 - the same three years early - and found the following answers to "Who would you most likely support for the Democratic nomination for President in 2004?"

Al Gore - 35%
Hillary Rodham Clinton - 21%
Bill Bradley - 12%
Joe Lieberman - 9%

Let me point out that none of those four were in the race - or were not in the race long enough - to actually be on the ballot in Iowa.

As we have discussed in this class before, early leaders in these sorts of polls are always people who have been in the news by being from (a) Washington, DC where national political reporters hang out; (b) New York, where network news editors hang out; or (c) California, where the political check-writers hang out.

In 2001, Bill Safire wrote a column in the NY Times looking down the road at some of the leading lights in the Democratic firmament for the 2004 nomination. He mentioned (among others) Senator Tom Daschle (SD) who lost his re-election bid to the Senate; Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo) who was out about half-way through caucus night in Iowa; as well as Joe Lieberman and Chris Dodd (Ct).

Safire's favorite for the nomination was also Al Gore who never got into the 2004 race at all.

Missing from both lists was an unknown Governor from Vermont, Howard Dean, who went from nowhere to become, among the cognoscenti, the odds-on favorite for the nomination up until the very moment when people began voting, leading directly to the collapse of his campaign and his return to nowhere which is where the Democratic National Headquarters is currently located.

SIDEBAR

You think I'm being hyperbolic about How-Weird Dean? As the chairman of the DNC, Dean was in Baton Rouge, Louisiana for a meeting the other night. Here's an AP report as to how well he's doing out in the Red States:

"Dean's appearance drew a light attendance and none of Louisiana's leading Democrats attended. Not Governor Kathleen Blanco or Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu, or even the chairman of the state party, Jim Bernhard."

END SIDEBAR

Notwithstanding the foolishness of horserace polls this far out, the Gallup poll did produce some information which the Hillaristas must consider worrisome. Senator Clinton's unfavorable rating came in at 43%. Kerry was at 48% but McCain's unfaves were only 22% and Giuliani's 19%.

The problem for the Hill is that she is by far the best known quantity among the four. If 43% of those polled already don't like her (even before her rivals have begun taking swipes) that presents a huge opening to other potential candidates.

In fact, if you hold a map up to your ear, you can hear the sound of fundraising calls being made from the political offices of Democratic Senators and Governors all over these United States.

On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A link to the Bill Safire column; a link to some of the coverage of this silly poll, an amusing Mullfoto, and a Catchy Caption of the Day.

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