What is likely to happen to the Senate in the mid-term elections this November? Let's start with two guys who actually KNOW what they are talking about:
The National Journal's Charlie Cook on the Senate: "By almost any measure - fund raising, polls or the state of play in individual races - neither party at this point can claim any real advantage."
ABC's Mark Halperin: "The array of seats expected to be in play this fall most likely will result in an outcome ranging from a Democratic net gain of one or two to a Republican net gain of one or two."
This, in the strange logic which exists in the world of quantum physics and national politics, is actually GOOD news for the GOP. In the U.S. Senate where only about a third of its members runs in any given election year, the party which is defending the most seats is at a disadvantage.
Of the 34 seats up for election, Republicans are defending 20, the Democrats only 14. Not only that, but the GOP has four open seats - North and South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas - while the Democrats have none.
The phrase of art for incumbents in trouble is: Endangered Species. The GOP has two. The Dems have at least three, probably four and maybe five.
On the GOP side, Tim Hutchinson (R-Ark) is running against state Attorney General Mark Pryor who is the son of popular former Senator David Pryor. Arkansas is a state still transitioning from D to R.
Republicans are also carefully watching over New Hampshire where incumbent Senator Bob Smith (R-NH) is in a primary battle with GOP Congressman (and son of the former Governor) John Sununu.
Democrats are hoping for a breakthrough in Texas where Republican Attorney General John Cornyn is lock up with Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk for the seat left open by the retirement of Senator Phil Gramm.
Cornyn has been dinged in the media for not having a stump style to counter Kirk, but folks who attended the recent GOP Texas state convention report he appears to have turned the corner.
According to one GOP operative "A state which has the [Republican] Governor running 20-something points ahead in his race, with a strong generic vote advantage, and happens to be the home of a 70 percent President is not likely to elect a Democrat to the Senate.
Perhaps THE most endangered species on the Democratic side is South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson. Because South Dakota has only one member of Congress, the Republican challenger - Congressman John Thune - has already run state-wide and is as well known as Johnson. Despite spending some $4 million, Johnson trails, according to one poll, by the margin of error.
A second problem child for the Dems is Jean Carnahan of Missouri. One observer suggests that a single vote - her vote against John Ashcroft for Attorney General - soured voters on any chance of her being perceived as a strong or independent voice for Missouri. Jim Talent, a former Congressman and a candidate for Governor in 2000 and is a polished campaigner.
A third is Paul Wellstone of Minnesota. One of the most liberal members of the Senate is being challenged by former St. Paul Mayor, Norm Coleman. This race is tied with Wellstone being dragged down by his reneging on his promise of term limits and the public's infatuation with Governor Jesse Ventura on the wane. One operative said, "Ventura is no longer the center of the political solar system in Minnesota. Wellstone never was. Coleman is in the right place."
The dark horse campaign Republicans like to talk about most is in New Jersey where incumbent Senator Bob Torricelli remains under an ethical cloud for his fundraising antics. He is facing moderate Republican Doug Forrester. According to a recent poll, Torricelli's "re-elect" ("Should Senator Torricelli be re-elected or is it time for a new person," or thereabouts) when pitted against Forrester was 28-50.
So. In a cycle when the Democrats SHOULD be looking at pickups in the 2-4 seat range, the Senate will be up for grabs deep into election night this November.
For the Constitutional background on the election of Senators, links to the GOP and Democratic campaign committees, and the usual stuff go to the Secret Decoder Ring page.
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