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An American Cyber-Column
Seven Weeks
Rich Galen
Wednesday May 19, 2004
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- On December 9, 2003 former Vice President Al Gore endorsed Vermont Governor Howard Dean to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.
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- No. I wanted to remind you of that to make an important point: On December 9, 2003 Howard Dean was the nominee of the Democratic Party. Seven weeks later, his campaign was over.
- Ok. That's typical Galenesque hyperbole, but not by much.
- Since my return to the US of A, I have been inundated by a constant keening and wringing of hands by those who believe this election is all but lost for President Bush.
- Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean in December because he believed - as did everyone with the possible exception of Dennis Kucinich and maybe Mrs. Dean - that the Governor would win the Democratic nomination.
- Remember, at the time, Mr. Gore - known to his Senate colleagues as "Prime Time Al" for his habit of racing onto the Senate floor at the last minute and demanding time so he could speak on whichever side was going to prevail on any issue - was roundly criticized for jumping into the nominating process at the last minute and endorsing the man who was clearly � going to prevail.
- The campaign for the nomination was over. Dean was The Man. That night Gwen Ifill, on the PBS "Newshour" program, asked NY Times reporter Adam Nagourney what the Gore endorsement would mean in New Hampshire.
- After making it clear that the New Hampshire was quite a ways off, Nagourney said:
"I'm telling you, it means a hell of a lot with Dean in this state. Dean's support here is broad, it is deep. It is - I have to say it's hard to see how anyone could overcome it."
- I am not picking on Nagourney here. He is a terrific political reporter. But I want to make the point how difficult - and dangerous - it is to predict anything in politics. Adam went on to say about the effect of Gore's endorsement of Dean in Iowa:
"Now, in Iowa the polls show it closer. I do think that the fact that Dean's voters are so enthusiastic and so well-organized, gives him ... means that the polls are a little bit deceptive. He is probably doing a little better than we think. That said, Gore is a big help there. Remember, Gore won Iowa last time. He has got a lot of support there. And I think that if Dean needed any more help getting ahead of Rep. Richard Gephardt, who I think is his main opponent in Iowa, this surely helped."
- Let's go to the video tape: On January 19, 2004, Senator John Kerry won the Iowa Caucuses with 38% of the votes. Senator John Edwards came in second with 32%; Howard Dean, with the Gore endorsement in hand, limped in with 18%.
- Gephardt, who needed a strong showing in Iowa, ended up with only 11% and dropped out of the race.
- Eight days later, on January 27, Howard Dean's unbeatable lead in the polls got him 26% of the vote, a double-digit loss to Sen. Kerry's 38%.
- Three weeks after that, on February 18, having gone oh-for-the-election-cycle, Howard Dean suspended his campaign.
- Look at today's date: May 19. This is not seven weeks from the election; it is nearly seven MONTHS from the election.
- Anyone - from either party - who tells you on May 19 that he or she knows what is going to happen on November 2 is either lying to you, or is a talking head on a cable TV news program.
- See, also, "redundancy": Superfluous repetition or verbosity.
- On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the Gwen Ifill/Adam Nagourney discussion; links to the primary results in Iowa and New Hamphire; a look at the Webster's definitions for "redundancy;" and a Catchy Caption of the Day.
-- END --
Copyright �2004 Richard A. Galen
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