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Nuclear Option

Rich Galen

Wednesday April 20, 2005


    Click here for an Easy Print Version

    From Naples, Florida
    National Association of Manufacturers

  • I am for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) invoking what the Democrats are calling the "nuclear option" when it comes to cutting off filibusters on Federal judges because the politics of it will work in favor of the GOP.

  • Let's step into the Way Back Machine and set it to November, 1994. On election night, Newt Gingrich's Republican Revolution gave the GOP control of the US House of Representatives for the first time since 1954.

  • In early January 1995, the GOP took physical control of the House and Newt was sworn in as speaker.

  • In April, 1995 the White House was so stung by the election defeat and the Contract with America that President Bill Clinton had to hold a press conference to remind everyone that he was "still relevant" to the legislative process.

  • Six months later, October 1995, the Great Government Shut-Down Fight between Gingrich and Clinton began over controlling the growth of Federal spending.

  • President Clinton said he would not sign appropriations bills which fell short of the spending levels he wanted. Speaker Gingrich said the President would sign them or the government would run out of money at the end of the fiscal year - September 30 - and would have to shut down.

  • Guess who won? A White House which is aggressively on message is an unstoppable force in this era of politics.

  • Now to 2005. The Senate Democrats have threatened to filibuster Federal judges they deem too conservative but who make it out of the Senate Judiciary Committee (which the GOP controls by two seats) and onto the Senate floor.

  • Under current Senate rules it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster. As there are only 55 Republicans in the Senate the GOP needs five Democrats to vote with them - assuming they don't lose any of their own.

  • If the Democrats, indeed, filibuster a Judicial nomination (it is likely there will be at least one vacancy on the Supreme Court following the end of the current term in June), Majority Leader Frist has threatened to change the rules of the Senate (there is no Constitutional provision permitting filibusters) to allow a simple majority to approve judicial nominations.

  • Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has issued a counter-threat that the Democrats will stop all but the most critical business before the Senate if Frist does that. Listening to Dems wail about this on TV you would think Senator Frist were threatening something which has never been done before in the history of the Republic.

  • According to the Senate Historian's office, filibusters have been allowed in the Senate since its earliest days. But the idea of changing filibuster rules didn't begin with Dr. Bill Frist.

  • The concept of the unlimited filibuster disappeared in 1917 when the Senate changed its rules so that debate could be cut off if two-thirds of the Senate voted to do so.

  • In 1975 the Senate changed the filibuster rule again, dropping the votes necessary to stop debate to three-fifths (60 votes of the full 100 Members) largely because Southern Democrats were using the filibuster to stop Civil Rights legislation.

  • If the Republican Majority changes the rules to require an up-or-down vote on judicial nominees and the Democrats attempt to effectively shut down the Senate in protest, the same thing will happen to Harry Reid as happened to Newt Gingrich.

  • An aggressively on-message White House - this time under the direction of George W. Bush instead of Bill Clinton - will make mincemeat out of Senate Democrats.

  • The President and the Republicans in the House and Senate will make it clear that it is the Senate Democrats who are holding up important legislation - legislation which will likely get to the Senate floor with great dispatch, just to make the point.

  • The Democrats must defend 18 seats in the 2006 election (including Jim Jeffords of Vermont). It will be interesting to see if they will be able to stand the heat of the nuclear option, or they begin to see that their careers are headed for a very cold nuclear winter.

  • On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A link to the Senate Historian's brief history of the filibuster; a mildly amusing Mullfoto and another confusing Catchy Caption of the Day.

    --END --
    Copyright © 2005 Richard A. Galen

                                                                       

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