"Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
"To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
"The dog did nothing in the night-time."
"That was the curious incident," remarked Sherlock Holmes.
Silver Blaze, Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892
Much of what we think we see is actually the result of what we did NOT see. Just as the key to solving the mystery of Silver Blaze was based upon the fact that a dog did not bark in the night-time, so it is interesting to examine what the non-Palestinian Arab states have not done - day or night.
Number One: There is the matter of military support for Yasser Arafat. The Arab neighbors have been blustering and blubbering since the current Israeli military actions began following a Palestinian homicide bombing at a Seder on the first night of Passover.
However, no Arab state has offered, threatened, or suggested they might send in their own military forces to support the Palestinian effort or to spring Arafat from Ramallah.
The Arab League, a couple of weeks ago, issued a declaration that an attack on any one of their members (it was designed as a declaration of support for - are you ready? - Iraq) was an attack on all of them.
Either they don't consider the Palestinians to be one of them, or they are full of - to paraphrase Col. Sherman T. Potter - camel hockey.
If the Arabs were serious about the Palestinians, and not just kindjal rattling, we would have seen some evidence of that by now.
Number Two: Saddam Hussein said he was cutting off oil exports for one month.
Let's look at this one. A: No one on this planet believes that Iraq will shut off the taps. Most people believe they will continue to sell oil (else, how can Saddam afford those $25,000 bounties for families to strap explosives to their children and send them into Israeli supermarkets?) and that oil will find its way into the normal supply channels.
B: No other member of the Arab League (including Kuwait which voted FOR that stupid resolution about an attack on Iraq and which has an army of about seven people all of whom were hired from someplace like Pakistan) has seen fit to follow Iraq in this oil thing.
C: Russia and the CIS countries are now pumping as much oil on a daily basis as Saudi Arabia.
D: The aforementioned Saudis have determined that they want oil to stay within the range of $22 and $28 per barrel. Less than $22 and they are not getting full value for their resource. More than $28 and they run the risk of slowing world economies thus reducing the demand for their oil.
As of yesterday afternoon, the price of a barrel of crude oil for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $25.82 - slightly down from its recent high which was close to the top end of the Saudis' target range.
The Saudis can easily increase daily oil shipments to avoid a spike in crude prices. And they probably would.
Number Three. No Arab leader has refused to meet with Secretary of State Colin Powell. Nor have they placed any pre-conditions on Powell before meeting with him (other than a tepid insistence that Powell not put pre-conditions on a meeting with Arafat).
So, it is possible - not probable, but possible - that we ARE getting closer to some long-term closure to this horrible situation. It is possible that the Arab neighbors, by doing "nothing in the night-time" are signaling they are prepared to put pressure on Arafat and the Palestinians to change direction.
If so, then it may well be a point to which they would wish to draw our attention. And the matter of the Arab silence on military aid, on oil cutbacks, and on diplomatic pressure may be the curious incident which helps solve this mystery.
On the Secret Decoder Ring page today, a link to Silver Blaze, a picture of Strand Magazine covers, a picture of a kindjal and the usual things.
If you are working at a lobbying firm, a government affairs office, a coalition, or a PAC you should take a
look at this page to see how advertising in Mullings might serve your organization very well:
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