Mullings An American Cyber Column By Rich Galen

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The Fog of Libya

Rich Galen

Wednesday March 23, 2011

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I need someone to explain to me what in the world we are doing bombing convoys in Libya.

On the very first day of the anti-Gaddhafi attacks we launched a reported 110 Tomahawk missiles into Libya at a cost of about $600,000 per. The very first day of President Barack Obama's very first war cost $66 million not including the cost of fuel, manpower, tax, title and dealer prep.

Since then we have also lost an F-15 Strike Eagle which go for about $31 million apiece. It is too early to have an accounting for all the other ordinance which has been expended, but there has been no public estimate of how much will be needed to win, nor any clear definition of what "win" means.

The legal justification for this war is based on the vote for a UN Security Council resolution which was something less than overwhelming: Ten nations voted for starting the war against Gaddhafi and five nations abstained.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton convinced President Obama that the Arab League was fully behind attacking Libya, but about 20 minutes after the missile hit their targets Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said that the Western bombing campaign "differs from the goal of imposing a no-fly zone," according to NPR.

Qatar was the first Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nation to send actual aircraft to enforce the "no-fly zone." Al Jazeera is owned by Qatar. Al Jazeera is credited with inciting the continued violence in the region - for better or for worse - and there are those who believe that Qatar is sending military assets to atone for al Jazeera's purported role in fomenting some of these problems.

The United Arab Emirates said it had planned to send two squadrons of fighter, 24 planes, to help with the no-fly deal but after the United States tsk-tsked the GCC's decision to send forces to put down the insurrection in Bahrain, the UAE decided to stand its planes down.

The UAE has since indicated it will provide military assistance.

Bahrain's neighbors believe Iran is behind the Shi'ia/Sunni clashes in Bahrain. Many in the region don't understand Hillary Clinton's inability to grasp the depth of the threat which Iran presents in the region.

No one in the region, apparently, has any problem understanding President Obama's inability to grasp what's going on.

As recently as yesterday, CNN was reporting that there is "mounting tension between [NATO] allies about who should command the mission." It is unclear which, if any, NATO members want to take the point on this effort.

Germany (one of the abstainers of the UN resolution) has chosen not to participate in the war in Libya at all. Italy, on the other hand, has threatened "to take back complete control of Italian airbases if NATO did not take the reins of the mission."

According to CNN, NATO member Turkey "also voiced its opposition to a political role for the alliance and has forcefully suggested that the mission so far has already gone beyond the intention of the U.N. resolution to protect civilians."

So, where is the coalition? It's not among the Arabs. It's not among NATO. That 10-5 vote shows it's not among members of the UN Security Council.

Where is it?

According to the Washington Post, four days of attacks have not altered the center of gravity in Libya, "There was little evidence that the attacks had stopped regime forces from killing civilians or shifted the balance of power in favor of the rebels."

Speaking of the "rebels," it would be interesting to know who makes up the Libyan opposition. One day they were protesters; next day they were rebels.

What if they turn out to be as bad or worse than Gaddhafi and his thugs? What if they are aligned, at least some of them, with al-Qaida and are looking for a new country to set up band camp for terrorist training?

Western intelligence missed Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya. I'm not at all certain we have the human intelligence resources to be comfortable that we're helping the right guys.

Every mistake we have made in every military adventure in the past 100+ years appears to have been made in our involvement in Libya. No clarity of mission. No clarity of command. No clarity of when we know if we've won or lost.

The fog of Libya hangs heavy on the conscience of the West.

New Topic:

Headline in the LA Times:

Exercising or having sex periodically may increase the risk for a cardiac event, but overall risk is low

Just to be on the safe side I'm giving up the periodic exercise.

On the Secret Decoder Ring today: The list of who voted for the UN resolution and which nations took a pass, also links to the CNN and the Washington Post analyses.

There is a photo of the four guys in Florida I told you about Monday, and a Catchy Caption of the Day.

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