Raising McCain. Raising Arizona. Blazing Michigan.
Wednesday, February 23, 2000
John S. McCain went two-for-two: He won Arizona in a yawner. He won Michigan in a shocker. The firewall became a fire drill.
George W. Bush won the Republican vote in Michigan by, perhaps, 50 points - 75-25. McCain won the independent and Democratic vote by about 50 points. More independents and Democrats turned out to vote than did Republicans. So McCain's 50 point win of D's and I's provided the margin of victory statewide.
The Bush folks will claim - correctly - that in winning a huge portion of the Republican vote, Bush is still the favorite to win the nomination because of the Republicans-only primaries coming up.
McCain's people will claim - correctly - that Bush knew what the rules were in these early states and if electability against Al Gore is the issue, McCain has shown he can attract the swing voters in a battleground state.
The McCain people now believe they can win in Washington State next week. They also believe they have a good shot at New York, and maybe Connecticut and Missouri on Super Tuesday. In California the "beauty contest" is open to all voters, but the delegate selection portion is GOP only. If Bush wins the GOP vote but McCain wins the overall vote in California, look for a good-old-fashioned floor fight over seating the California delegation.
So, what does Bush do now? He obviously has an enormous well of support built up among hard-core (not necessarily defined as hard-right) Republicans. If Bush begins to move back to the center, from whence he came last summer, both in style and substance he can regain first the confidence, then the support of the vast middle-wing conspiracy.
McCain will certainly have enough money to compete through Super Tuesday and, if he strengthens his message to traditional Republicans and points to his 17-year voting record to prove his GOP credentials he has every reason to believe he can begin to eat into Bush's GOP base of support.
Whew!
In a conversation with McCain' pollster, Bill McInturff on the tactics employed by the Bush forces in South Carolina, he recalled a special Congressional election in Queens, New York back in the 80's. The Democrats parked ambulances - lights flashing - in front of the four best Republican precincts and told potential voters there was a heart attack inside, come back later.
The Gore/Bradley Pander-thon last night may cause some problems for Al Gore down the road. Gore has got the drill down perfectly. When Bradley challenged him on something he supported or opposed - like guns, and abortion - Gore accused Bradley of being mired in the past and engaging in personal politics. Then he hammered Bradley with something he said when he was twelve.
Speaking of problems in the Democratic ranks, the NY Times piece yesterday by Elisabeth Bumiller points out that Hillary Rodham Clinton Rodham is barely running even with Rudy Giuliani among women. For the entire story, go to the Secret Decoder Ring page. Hillary cannot win without substantially improving her standing with women with whom, according to the article, she held a 58-34 lead last year.
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