The Bump is not a New Dance
Monday, February 21, 2000
Earlier this year, the McCain campaign theory of the world held that if they won in New Hampshire, they would get a big enough bump to be able to win in South Carolina. If they won in South Carolina they would get a big enough bump to be able to carry Michigan. And so on all the way through Super Tuesday.
A win in one state would have a positive impact for McCain on the next state.
The day after his huge win in New Hampshire, McCain wiped out a 20-point Bush lead in South Carolina and was even. Their theory was looking pretty good. It looked very good when, two days later, they were ahead by five percentage points.
Then Bush won Delaware with 51% of the vote, which had the effect of dramatically slowing McCain's momentum in South Carolina. The McCain folks dearly wanted Bush to be held to under 50 so they would have been able to make the case that in a Republican-only primary, even with McCain not actively campaigning in the state, more than half of the Republicans still wanted someone else.
That didn't happen and it had, perhaps, a greater impact than we realized at the time. Still, the McCain theory was still working: Bush got the Bump.
Bush won South Carolina, with significantly more than half the Republican vote. So, the question on everyone's lips is: What will be the cumulative effect of all that on the results tomorrow night? If the McCain theory still holds, Bush will win in Michigan.
The WPA (World Pundits Association) has determined that with the loss in South Carolina, McCain has used up his Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free card and cannot sustain a loss to Bush in Michigan. Arizona has been discounted, as it is McCain's home state. Bush has to run commercials there because he has promised to compete in every state, but no one expects Bush to win there.
But, according to the Associated Press McCain has about $8 million (including matching funds) available to him. Bush has somewhere around $20 million. Eight million dollars will allow McCain to compete through Super Tuesday, at a minimum. But a loss in Michigan might mean that, for all intents and purposes, whatever he's got is all he's going to have. Wins and losses also have an instantaneous impact on fund raising as we saw with McCain coming out of New Hampshire.
If you listen closely you will almost be able hear the Bush fund raisers on the phones to the Bush Pioneers (many of whose knees got pretty wobbly in the past two weeks) if Bush wins Michigan: "Hello? Remember your crisis of faith? Your act of contrition is to raise anther fifty grand. Good Bye."
The percentage of reporters and political staff who are using hands-free attachments on their cell phones has jumped from almost zero to about 30 percent. That means the percentage of reporters and political people walking around, waving their arms, and apparently talking to themselves has risen to nearly 50 percent.
Here's how you drive from Florence, South Carolina to Alexandria, Virginia: Get on I-95. Drive for seven hours. Get off I-95.
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