Mullings An American Cyber Column By Rich Galen

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The Evan Doesn't Fall Far from the Birch

Rich Galen

Wednesday February 17, 2010

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The announcement by Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind) that he would not be running for re-election was abrupt, surprising, and as Vice President Dan Quayle put it, stunning.

Bayh's statement that just wasn't much fun to be in Washington anymore would have made more sense if he had made it in January, or even after the early February election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

It would have given Democrats in Indiana a chance to weigh their options, check their bank accounts and their e-mail lists, and make a rational decision whether to run for the U.S. Senate seat in what is looking more and more like a tough year to run as a D.

To be on the ballot for statewide office in Indiana a candidate needs signatures from 500 registered voters in each of the state's nine Congressional Districts. Under normal circumstances that might take a couple of weeks of work by the CD organizations, but certainly not a steep hill to climb for a legit candidate.

But, by leaving only a matter of hours, not weeks, Bayh guaranteed that the Democratic who will run for the open Senate seat in November will be hand-picked by the State Democratic party.

Before the Democrats at the Senate Campaign Committee start doing the "He Went to Jared's" dance o' joy, I have two words: New York 23.

Ok, three words.

In the election to fill the Congressional seat left vacant by the appointment of Rep. John McHugh to be Secretary of the Army the GOP county chairs in the 23rd District picked State Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava to be the Republican nominee.

The GOP lost the seat as conservatives from around the country jumped in and split the vote allowing the Democrat, Bill Owens, to win the seat.

The early betting favorite to take the seat is former Senator Dan Coats who started his political career as the district representative for Congressman Dan Quayle in 1976, won Quayle's Congressional seat when Quayle moved onto the Senate, and then was appointed to Quayle's Senate seat when Quayle was elected Vice President.

Coats easily won the Senate seat in his own right in the special election to fill the unexpired term and then was just as easily re-elected to a full term.

Quayle, for his part, had been elected to the U.S. House against an 18-year incumbent Democrat and served two terms before running for U.S. Senate against Evan Bayh's daddy, Birch Bayh - another 18-year incumbent Democrat.

The election of 1980 was the election in which Ronald Reagan carried enough Republicans running for the Senate into office with him that the GOP took control in January of 1981. Congressman Dan Quayle became Senator Dan Quayle at age 33 (three years over the Constitutional minimum) and went on to win re-election six years later by what was at the time the largest percentage in Hoosier history.

I happened to have been the press secretary on that 1980 campaign and an unknown Congressman from Huntington, Indiana having the temerity to run against Birch Bayh was considered laughable and no one gave Quayle much of a chance.

In 1980 the polls in Indiana closed at 6 PM. We were ready for a long, long night of counting but Quayle had beaten Birch Bayh so soundly on the campaign trail that the race was the first one called by the networks in what became a national wave of GOP victories.

If the election of Scott Brown was a lightning bolt striking the Democratic Party, then Evan Bayh - who was also a Wunderkind, having been elected Governor at the Quayle-esque age of 33 - announcing he is retiring is the functional equivalent Harry Reid and the Senate Democratic caucus being run over by a semi.

There is no way to spin Bayh's departure as somehow good for Democrats. Beating Coats is not a sound bet. Along with North Dakota and Delaware, Indiana now presents at least the third Senate seat likely to switch from D to R in the 112th Congress.

With analysts now seriously discussing Republican takeovers of one or both chambers in the U.S. Congress - neither is likely, but the odds are shrinking fast - it is only a matter of time before Dems running for re-election decide the time has come to begin ignoring - if not actively opposing - President Obama.

Now you understand why the White House and the Democratic Congressional leadership was in such a projectile sweat to get health care, card check, cap-and-trade, and energy legislation done before we got into the even-numbered year.

When Birch Bayh left the Senate in 1980, the GOP took over. It is not out of the question that the same thing will happen when his son leaves 30 years later.

On the Secret Decoder Ring today: Bios of Quayle, Coats and Bayh. Also an unbelievably cute photo of my cat not enjoying the Westminster Dog Show and a Catchy Caption of the Day.

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