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Bush Crosses the Delaware
Wednesday, February 9, 2000
From Dallas, Texas
George W Bush finally got a result which he could crow about. By getting 51 percent of the votes in Delaware, where ONLY Republicans could participate, he has a win which is significant in its size, if not in its delegate count.
The Delaware story is being shared between Bush, John McCain and, on the negative side, Steve Forbes. In some readings of the mid-afternoon exit polls yesterday, Bush was under 50 percent, with McCain and Forbes getting about a quarter of the vote apiece. It was unclear who would come in third.
But when the final tallies came in, Bush got more than half the votes; McCain got to say what he wanted to say: Without spending one day or one dime he came in second; and, Forbes' third place showing, at 20 percent, is likely to cause him to call it a day.
The timing of the Forbes decision could have significance down the road. There are some analysts who think if Forbes and Keyes continue to compete through South Carolina they could get 10-12 percent of the votes nearly all of which would come out of Bush's hide.
Therefore, if Forbes, as seems likely, gets out of the race this week, it will make McCain's hill a bit steeper to climb in South Carolina.
Speaking of the Delaware campaign, one news organization noted they had more reporters in Delaware covering the primary (4) than Delaware has electoral votes (3).
As the brief candle of Delaware burns out, the principal players strut across the stage of South Carolina - whose election is a week from this Saturday. It would appear that the McCain campaign wants to have a five day fight about the fight. The new television ads on both sides are sharper in their criticisms by several orders of magnitude from what we have seen before.
Starting next Monday, both campaigns will want to define the final question on which they hope the election will turn. McCain seems likely to continue to hammer on the theme which has gotten him here: Bush's money and sense of entitlement should not be reason enough to get your vote.
Bush's campaign will continue with its new, sharper edge to hammer on "Chairman" McCain, pointing out the Senator's 17 years of Washington experience shouldn't give him the title of "outsider."
McCain's non-stop communication with the press corps is beginning to tell on reporters. Many reporters use the time between stops to listen to what was said at the previous event on their tape recorders, write at least part of the story they are going to file, and generally get caught up.
On the "Straight Talk Express" reporters can't risk not listening to McCain, who holds court constantly between stops, because he might say something newsworthy. They have little time to assimilate what has gone on during the day because they are constantly taking notes on what McCain is saying on the bus.
On ABC's Nightline, last evening, I appeared with pollster Whit Ayres, and Josette Shiner, an excellent columnist with the Scripps Howard news service. One of the points was a discussion of what has changed in the Bush campaign. I used Sam Dawson's theory that the Bush organization had ignored a basic doctrine of campaigns: The front runner has to get rid of anyone who might be in a position to challenge him; swiftly, cleanly, completely.
McCain and Bush are reminding us that, in America, politics is a contact sport.
On a slightly different subject, what are those "millennium count-down clocks" showing now? Not the ones constructed by current and former members of your high school's science club (Science Club 2-3-4, Pep Section 3-4, AV Squad 1-2-3-4, Fond of Saying: "Theoretically, Pythagoras Rules!") whose millennium count-down clocks are counting down to the REAL end of the millennium on December 31, 2000 - I mean all the other ones. Are they counting down to the year 3000?
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