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This is Why They Hold the Elections
Wednesday, February 2, 2000
From Manchester, New Hampshire
New Hampshire came through again. George W got spanked, big time, by John McCain and Bill Bradley stopped announcing his imminent death just long enough to make it a very close race against Al Gore.
Gore, who just a week ago had all but declared himself the nominee, now finds himself in a near tie with Bradley with five weeks until the next test to explain his collapse in New Hampshire. Bradley won back 25 percentage points since Iowa with only the gentlest possible push-back against Gore.
John McCain ran a race which was brilliantly designed for New Hampshire. Last night's early tallies indicated independents might have accounted for over 40 percent of the total voting in the Republican primary. The independents had been breaking for McCain nearly 8-1 a couple of weeks ago, and they saw nothing in the last week to make them change their minds.
The only way Bush could have won in New Hampshire would have been if the independents had turned out in numbers not more than the low 20's. Once McCain energized those folks to the levels he did, this was the only outcome.
One Bush senior staffer said to the press: "You can't spin this one. This was an old-fashioned [butt] kicking."
On the Bush side this result should mean that the "Gentleman's 'C'" campaign is officially over. Bush may not need to change his message as he moves south but he certainly needs to sharpen his rhetoric and demonstrate that he not only has a vision for America, but understands the steps necessary to get us there.
The McCain camp believes the 20 point deficit which exists in the South Carolina polls will shrink to about 10 percentage points once the magnitude of this sinks in. Then, they say, they have until February 19th to pull even.
The McCain campaign ended the year with about 1.5 million cash-on-hand. Add to that about five million in matching funds. Subtract outstanding bills. You have a number which indicates the amount they have for the South Carolina campaign.
They believe fund raising will pick up dramatically starting today, after last night's victory. They are probably correct. But this will be a week-to-week campaign unless and until they win in South Carolina.
Al Gore found that the "brute force" organizing techniques he employed so well in Iowa did not work here in New Hampshire. Importing the United Auto Workers had little or no impact on this campaign and all he succeeded in doing was letting Bill Bradley up off the mat.
Gore's financial situation is probably closer to McCain's than Bush's. Bradley can go to his supporters and claim he very nearly beat Gore in New Hampshire. With the Democrats' proportional delegate selection, Bradley will come out of New Hampshire with almost the same number of delegates to the national convention as Gore.
That is a money-raising message for Bradley who can spend between now and March 7th picking his spots, and picking on Gore in California and New York.
This, my friends, is fun. Maybe not for the candidates, but for political junkies? It doesn't get any better than this.
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