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Now It Begins
Tuesday, January 25, 2000
SPECIAL IOWA CAUCUS EDITION
Des Moines, Iowa
The good news for George W is he won. His people will say that his 11-or-so point win over Steve Forbes counts because Forbes could not close the gap between them since August.
The good news for Steve Forbes is: Bush couldn't pull away and increase the distance between them since August.
Both are right.
The good news for Alan Keyes is he got 14 percent of the vote and, on a vote-per-dollar spent basis was the clear winner.
John McCain got a big boost yesterday not from anything that happened in Iowa, but a Supreme Court ruling which upheld a Missouri law which limits the amount a state or local candidate can raise. The Court specifically let stand a previous ruling dealing with how political parties can raise and spend soft money - which is the centerpiece of McCain's message - but that may be too fine a point for most voters.
The bad news for Bush is he doesn't get rid of Forbes. Forbes will continue, and probably increase, the number and severity of his anti-Bush ads. We'll soon see whether voters truly are sick of negative campaigning.
The bad news for Forbes is the surprising showing by Keyes which prevents Forbes from laying claim to being the only movement conservative in the race.
The bad news for Keyes is his third place finish still doesn't confer any sense of legitimacy on his candidacy.
The bad news for McCain is there are still at least four people left in the race, and probably five - Bauer will stay in through next Tuesday - and he will have to deal with the cross-currents of Forbes, Keyes, and Bauer instead of being able to go head-to-head against Bush.
On the Democratic side there is not much bad news for Al Gore. He did what he was expected to do: beat Bill Bradley by about two-to-one.
Bradley still has the cash to stay in for a long time and, if he can gather himself for a strong week in New Hampshire, he can get back into the game. And getting about 33 percent of the vote puts him beyond the Ted Kennedy insurgent figure of 31 percent which the campaign was aiming for.
Bradley, unaccountably, has all but stopped taking the campaign to Gore. The buzz around political circles is his health continues to cause him problems. That buzz is, in and of itself, a problem.
The short answer is: Nearly everyone gets to claim something positive as they climb into their airplanes and head for New Hampshire.
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